2021 Market Projections

By pjain      Published Aug. 24, 2020, 10:52 p.m. in blog Invest   

2021 Long Term Macro Drivers

Trump to bomb in US Elections - Neocons, Neoliberals, Deep State and China/Russia all oppose him

Trump has very visibly tied his administration’s performance to that of the stock market; if these enemies desire to deny him a second term, this is the most lethal weapon they can fire at him.

The Deep State has warred with President Trump over the past four years.

Military-Industrial complex does not like global "pullouts" promoted by Trump.

Oil sector saw Trump backing, but basic problems of $35 oil still plague the industry, and government has not bailed out the scores of failing drillers.

Trump has been stinging China - unlike every president that sucked up amid globalization/financialization since 1980.

BORED AT HOME - "perfect storm of stupid" theory

Basically, Americans are super-bored. They're at home. Sports are canceled. The kids are screaming, casinos are closed so 800,000 additional people have decided to plop down money on the biggest roulette table of them all: the stock market. Shiller says, "speculation .. but it seems like people want to do something."

Corporate-America-is-boosted by Fed/New Money so Stocks=Big Corp = immune-from-pain theory

The stock market represents only a fraction of the economy: publicly traded corporations. While restaurants, mom-and-pop shops and other small businesses have clearly been hammered, the majority of them are not listed on the stock market. Meanwhile, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google represent about 20% of the value of the S&P 500, and they've been making out pretty well during the pandemic.

Corporate America has also been getting a boost from the Federal Reserve, which is buying trillions of dollars in corporate bonds to stimulate the economy.


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