Biden Presidency 2021-

By pjain      Published Jan. 21, 2021, 10:32 p.m. in blog Geo-Politics   

Infra and Climate Part I $2.25 T

Loaded with Pork and Union Payoffs - Republicans to Oppose

  • Demos call it the American Jobs Plan
  • The GOP broadly supports efforts to rebuild roads, bridges and airports and expand broadband access
  • House leader Pelosi told the Democratic caucus in the chamber that she would like to have it passed by July 4,

  • Republicans oppose tax hikes as part of the process.

  • Reduce to "useful" 30% or $600b Republican leader Roy Blunt, MO
  • McConnell to oppose
  • Not a single Republican may vote for this

Reconciliation - Only 2 more slots before 2022

  • As of Apr'2021, Democrats will have two more shots at budget reconciliation before the 2022 midterms.
  • But Senate leader Schumer hopes to persuade the chamber’s parliamentarian to allow Democrats to use the process at least once more beyond those two opportunities, according to NBC News.
  • May have to be forced through 2 houses using Reconciliation process, to avoid Senate Filibuster

Need Taxation boost to Finance

  • Raise corporate tax to 28% from Trump's 21% (slashed from 35% in 2017 tax law)
  • Raise tax on Overseas profits
  • The White House aims to discourage firms from listing tax havens as their address and writing off expenses related to offshoring, among other reforms
  • Proposed Tax on Book Income
  • Binden working with OECD to boost the global minimum tax for multinational corporations and ensure they pay at least 21% in taxes in any country.
  • PRO act - would penalize 1099, get rid on lot of safe harbor labor provisions - raise costs/cut productivity
  • Biden had said would not increase the burden on anyone making less than $400k/yr changed from individual to family/joint.

SALT removal unlikely

  • Biden said he wanted the infrastructure plan to include a repeal of the cap on state and local tax deductions — a change which would disproportionately help higher-income people in high-tax states including New Jersey, Connecticut and Schumer’s home state, New York.

$600b physical infrastructure like roads and bridges

  • Reduce to "useful" 30% or $600b Republican leader Roy Blunt, MO
  • Revamp 20,000 miles of roads and highways and repair 10,000 bridges.
  • Put $621 billion into transportation infrastructure such as bridges, roads
  • Update aging infrastructure like roads and bridges to be more resilient to weather events like droughts, floods and wildfires.

Housing

Put more than $300 billion into building and retrofitting affordable housing, along with constructing and upgrading schools The administration hopes to build or rehabilitate 500,000 homes for low- and middle-income Americans and replace all lead pipes in drinking-water systems.

Retrofit millions of homes to increase energy efficiency, with efforts focused on the low-income and minority communities most vulnerable to climate change.

The White House wants to ensure public transportation revitalization reaches communities of color harmed by past projects, such as highways built through neighborhoods. The administration also aims to focus efforts to make homes, schools, transportation and utility grids more resilient in marginalized communities more likely to bear the brunt of severe weather events.

Broadband, Education, Child/Family Leave

The plan also aims to deliver universal, affordable broadband service.

Biden is pushing for universal pre-K and expanded paid leave - but may split it off.

Climate, Grid

Ironically, progressives like AOC, NGOs still criticized the proposal as insufficient to tackle climate change, pointing to Biden’s vows to spend $2 trillion over four years to transition the economy to net-zero emissions.

If passed it would rank as one of the largest federal efforts ever to curb the country’s greenhouse gas emissions and advance the president’s commitment to put the country on a path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard,” a mandate that would require a portion of U.S. electricity come from zero-carbon sources like wind and solar power. The mandate would require congressional approval.

  • $100b update electric grid and make it more resilient to climate disasters
  • $35b R&D carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, offshore wind, and electric vehicles.
  • $10 billion would establish a “Civilian Climate Corps” to employ people to restore land.

Transportation other than EVs

  • Public transit, ports, airports and electric vehicle development

EVs

  • $174b boost EVs AND money to retool factories and boost domestic supply of materials, tax incentives for EV buyers, and grant and incentive programs for charging infrastructure.
  • PKJ - isnt this supposed to be a private infrastructure eg by owners of buildings etc - or subsidised mess globally?
  • EV Subsidies for Transportation- incentives for Americans to buy EVs
  • Replace 50,000 diesel public transit vehicles.

EV Charging Networks

  • Recharging market could be a total addressable market of about $27 billion by 2040 with tremendous growth and value creation, underpinned by a large, strong unit economics, and recurring revenue

  • But EV sales need to ramp up as well as incentives and investments from several sources, including the federal government.

  • Right now you absolutely need government funding The reality of it is that the automakers don’t have the money. Utilities have some of the money, but the business case isn’t there. It’s so expensive.
  • $50b (of total $174b) for 500k USA charging stations across the country by 2030. $300 billion will be needed to build out a global charging network to accommodate the expected growth of EVs by 2030.
  • Lower-level chargers, including home outlets, that take several hours.
  • Level three chargers cost $120,00 to $260,000 installed on average
  • Even more, these fast chargers that some automakers are promising will take as little as 10 minutes

  • There are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy. Fewer than 5,000 are fast chargers.

  • About 30% of Americans don’t have access to home or workplace charging that they may need in the future, giving fears that they may "not get back home" if they don't get a slot to charge at work.
  • That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations nearly at every corner
  • Shop/Restaurant/Theater Strategy. Charging suppliers and operators have largely focused infrastructure at destination points in urban and suburban areas such as grocery stores and other places where people regularly shop

  • PROBLEM: Electric cars only make up 350k or 2% of new auto sales of 17m/yr in the U.S. This is INSUFFICIENT to give good ROI for charging infrastructure.

  • Chicken and egg situation - EV charging networks are very sparse because of economics and severe expenses.
  • The profit margins and amount of effort involved to maintain them just doesn’t make sense.

  • Tesla, an early leader in the industry, built its own charging network out of necessity and, in part, to help sell its cars. The biggest EV installed base of Tesla cars have their own proprietary charging network, excluding which other cars would find it impossible to navigate within MSAs let alone coast-to-coast!

  • ChargePoint went public through a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, in March. “You’re going to need an entire universe of charging infrastructure that is easy to use and accessible for the different scenarios to kind of play out.” - CEO Pasquale Romano

  • EVgo plans to do the same in the second quarter. EVgo, which plans to go public in the second quarter through a $2.6 billion SPAC deal, owns and operates more than 800 charging locations in 67 major markets across 34 states. The company’s business model is different than ChargePoint, which sells stations to businesses and other establishments and then charges them subscription fees to be a part of their network. “We’re essentially crowdfunding for the driver one business at a time, the largest network of EV chargers in the area for them and they see it all as one network through our mobile application,” ChargePoint’s Romano said. “It all says ChargePoint, we don’t own any of it. It’s just all looks like we own it to the driver and that’s what we want is to create a model where each business does their part.”

Industrial Jobs and Transition Plans

Invest $580 billion in American manufacturing, research and development and job training efforts

  • money to retool factories
  • boost domestic supply of materials

  • fossil fuel workers transition to new jobs, the plan also includes $16 billion to employ those workers to cap oil and gas wells and reclaim old coal mines to curb methane leaks.

Health Care subsidies

Direct $400 billion to care for elderly and disabled Americans

$300b Water

Inject more than $300 billion into improving drinking-water infrastructure, expanding broadband access and upgrading electric grids

It proposes replacing all the country’s lead pipes and updating water systems to ensure drinking water is safe.

Infra and Climate Part II $2T?

Biden said he will unveil the second part of his recovery package by May or so.

$1.9b Biden's-Covid Monetary Stimulus - Rescue and Direct Payments

2021-2022 Biden Agenda Unfolds

  • Forced through 2 houses using Reconciliation process, to avoid Senate Filibuster
  • Not a single Republican voted for this

  • The rescue part of Biden's new $1.9T plan is targeted at supporting people and businesses that are still struggling while the pandemic is going on - more money for local governments and small businesses, for unemployment insurance and those $1,400 checks to individuals.

Income single/couple Biden single/couple Cares Act
<75k/150k $1400/$2800 $1200/2400
<87.5k/175k $700/$1400 $575/$1175
<$100k/$200k $0/$0 $0/$0
  • House Democratic leaders rejected a push by some moderate Democrats to lower the threshold at which payments begin phasing out at $50,000 for an individual and $100,000 per couple.

2. CHILD TAX CREDIT

  • Boosts the annual child credit to $3,600 a year for children five and younger and $3,000 for those six and up.
  • The money would come in monthly instalments from July through December. The maximum child tax credit is currently $2,000 and is disbursed annually
  • Single-parent households earning up to $75,000 or couples making $150,000 will get the full credit amounts, which will phase out for incomes above those levels
  • The credits will be based on a family’s 2020 income.

=== 2021H1 Politics vs AGENDA : Covid Recovery, Economy

Biden's Covid Calming Policy, Leadership and Action

  1. 100 Days of Enforced masks in Federal jurisdictions

  2. Rush out Vaccine deployment

Limits of Blue Wave

Filibusters

Reconciliation process imposes Senate will on House Democratic Majorit

Budget are not Filibustered but Limited by Rules

Reconciliation process’s Byrd Rule which prevents any policies from being included in the budget reconciliation process unless they have a direct budgetary effect.

Fragmented Senate even Democrats limit

Also pushback in Senate bipartisans on not changing minimum wage in a pandemic. This upset the cart as Biden's original $1.9T stimulus had it, but had to be excluded.

  • Joe Manchin D-WVa - fence-sitter moderate
  • Senator Sinema D - fence-sitter moderate

Recovery "Subsidies" to favored Industries, States and Education

The recovery part, is targeted at helping the economy recover in the long term.

  1. EDUCATION AND LABOR PANEL

    $130 billion for kindergarten through 12th grade school reopening $40 billion for higher-education institutions $39 billion for childcare businesses $5 billion for extended pandemic food benefits $4 billion for expanded home-heating assistance $1.4 billion for senior-care services Provisions to tighten workplace safety standards for Covid-19 Funding to subsidize health insurance for the newly unemployed, and to address a rise in domestic violence and child abuse

  2. FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTEE

    $10 billion to use the Defense Production Act to produce masks and other Covid-19 equipment, $25 billion for rental assistance, largely run through the Treasury Department $5 billion in assistance for the homeless. $10 billion for direct assistance to homeowners for mortgage payments, property taxes and utility costs $14 billion in payroll assistance to airlines, with $1 billion for their contractors

  3. TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE

    $50 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency to deal with the Covid-19 disaster $30 billion for transit $8 billion for airports $1.5 billion for Amtrak

US Budget, Treasury, Fed to Continue QE 3+ years

Fed to continue zero Interest rates for 3 years!

  • How much will Federal govt have to borrow from Fed under Biden. As his Treasury Secretary Yellen says, "the smartest thing we can do is act big now ... it is cheap for the government to pay back that debt [later]"

  • In emergencies, the Fed has this other really important job. We call it lender of last resort. Traditionally, they lend to banks and financial institutions when there's a panic, when nobody wants to lend to anybody and credit is collapsing. And they did that this spring when nobody wanted to lend to everybody and credit was collapsing, which is good, prevented a financial crisis. But they went even further. The really interesting novel stuff the Fed was doing was largely lending not just to financial institutions, but also to almost everybody else - to cities and states, to medium-sized businesses, to large businesses. This is stuff the Fed hadn't done since the Depression, hadn't done in almost 100 years. - NPR.org

$15/hr Minimum Wage blocked for now

  • CBO finding that the minimum wage increase would add $54 billion over 10 years to the budget deficit could improve the odds that the minimum wage stays in a final bill.
  • CBO said would help eliminate poverty as $30,000 is below poverty line in most of the USA.
  • CBO estimates costing up to 1.4mm jobs
  • Goldman revised its stimulus amount forecast and now thinks this amount is likely to be as high as $1.5 trillion (6.8% of GDP), up from the bank's previous forecast of $1.1 trillion (5% of GDP). This is turn prompted the bank to also hike its GDP forecast for 2021 and 2022 up by about 0.2% each year, to 6.8% and 4.5%respectively, and to move forward its estimate of the first Fed rate hike from late 2024 to early 2024.

Minimum Wage Timeline

  1. Feb 8 2021 Stimulus for pass Feb 22, 2021 and reconcile signed by end Feb'2021

  2. Blocked for now for - Blame R-Senators on this! Very unlikely that the minimum wage hike will survive the Reconciliation process’s Byrd Rule which prevents any policies from being included in the budget reconciliation process unless they have a direct budgetary effect. Also pushback in Senate bipartisans on not changing minimum wage in a pandemic.

  3. March 13,2021 expiration of jobless benefits Goldman, congressional leaders are aiming for passage, but it might take until late March if things do not go smoothly.

Do Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra

California Attorney General Xavier Becerra to steer the Department of Health and Human Services, a critical role overseeing the implementation of the Biden administration's coronavirus response. As California's top prosecutor, Becerra took on the Trump administration in more than 100 lawsuits on key issues like health care, immigration, gun control and environmental policies. Before becoming the state's attorney general, he served 12 terms in Congress, representing Los Angeles. Becerra does not have a background in medicine or public health, but he has established himself as advocate for the Affordable Care Act and women's health care. Becerra, the son of Mexican immigrants, would be the first Latino to lead the department, if confirmed.

CDC

Surgeon General Leadership

Economic Indicators to watch UNDER Biden

  • Unemployment rate. Jan'20 was 3.5% before Covid hit, but Dec'20 rose to 6.7%, but spiked on renewed lockdowns. Problem: the unemployment rate doesn't count people who have given up looking for jobs, either because they had to stay home to take care of kids or relatives or because they got discouraged. However pre-Covid, the poverty rate had gone down for five straight years. That's all largely the result of a tight labor market.
  • National debt-to-GDP ratio. During Trump went from 75% to 100% with sharp spike in 2020 for Covid CARES act,etc. This will rise more under Biden.

EVs, Transportation, Infra - To take time - 2022-2024

Job Program for Post-Covid Recovery, Infrastructure

Support of SME enterprises, PPE post-, Covid

Unemployment

DoTransportation - Pete Buttigieg

At 38, Buttigieg is the youngest of Biden's Cabinet picks so far. He is also poised to become the first openly gay person confirmed by the Senate to a Cabinet post. President-elect Joe Biden introduces former Democratic primary rival Pete Buttigieg as his nominee for transportation secretary. Buttigieg is the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana. He ran against Biden in the Democratic primary and is seen as a rising star in the party. As transportation secretary, Buttigieg would likely play a key part in implementing Biden's ambitious infrastructure plan, which aims to offset the impacts of climate change.

Jobs in Short Term

Trade, Commerce, Customs - Need to deal with EU,China, NorthAm -- 2021 end

Trade Wars and Tariffs

Trump raised average Chinese tariffs from 3% to 19%, settling on Phase I compromise that China has massively reneged on.

Trade Secretary Katherine Tai

Dept of Commerce - Gina Raimondo

Biden announced he'd nominate Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo to commerce secretary on Jan. 7 Raimondo, who was first elected governor in 2014 and chaired the Democratic Governors Association in 2019

Director of the Office of Management and Budget - Neera Tanden

A former aide to Hillary Clinton, Tanden currently serves as president and CEO of the left-leaning Center for American Progress. She faces an uphill confirmation battle as some Senate Republicans have already indicated her nomination won't pass the chamber's GOP majority, citing her past criticisms of Republican senators whose votes she would need.

DoTreasury Janet Yellen

Yellen is currently an economist at the Brookings Institution. She was the first woman to helm the Fed, taking the reins in 2014 as the country recovered from the Great Recession. President-elect Joe Biden on Dec. 1 unveiled his economic team amid growing concerns about the pace of the nation's economic recovery as governments reimpose restrictions to curtail the surging coronavirus pandemic. A labor expert, Yellen is expected to garner support from progressives. A handful of Senate Republicans who are still in the chamber voted to confirm Yellen to her previous post at the central bank. If confirmed as treasury secretary, Yellen would enter the post during one of the most trying economic times in modern history, with millions of Americans out of work due to the coronavirus pandemic and lagging job growth.

Politics of 2021-2022 next Midterms

REDs reject Bipartisanship to Obstruct like Obama'2010

Filibulster key tool - too hard to eliminate

Abolition of the filibuster apparently off the table, as even the a comprehensive proposal lacks a viable path to passage.

Bipartisanship on Populist Topics - REDs don't dare obstruct

Theoretically Bipartisanship strategy can navigate calmer issues

  1. Test the waters with congressional leaders of both parties to gauge extent of support and prioritize what to push on!

  2. Work with bipartisan groups in the House and Senate to determine the limits of the possible.

  3. Behind the scenes - whip own party to comply 100%, and then peel off opposing reps/senators with Chanakaya tools to bribe,threaten, cajole etc enough to get bill voted through.

  4. Use Presidential Executive Privilege, EOs, Vetoes to create and enhance power of presidential office or a nuisance for Congress that defies.

GET Priorities straight - What to Push through

  • LESSON of 2010 was squandered by Obama in a failed effort to pass cap-and-trade climate legislation. The opportunity cost was huge, and the Republican performance in the midterms foreclosed any further movement of the administration’s agenda.

2022 next Midterms

===== PRESIDENT BIDEN's, "Progressive" Administrative Agenda

Health care, AHA fix, Food, Drugs Pricing, Costs Reduction

FDA

FOOD DoAgriculture - Tom Vilsack

Biden, on Dec. 10, announced he will nominate former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack to serve as his secretary of agriculture. Vilsack led the department for eight years during the Obama administration after he was unanimously confirmed by the Senate in 2009. Prior to that, he served two terms as governor of the Hawkeye State, and he is currently chief executive of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. Vilsack would be the second member of the Obama administration to reprise their role in Biden's White House, joining the president-elect's nominee for surgeon general, Vivek Murthy, in returning to their former posts if they are both confirmed by the Senate.

Climate, Energy, Oil and Gas

Clampdown on Oil

  1. Biden Order Blocks $8 b Keystone XL Pipeline a years-long project that would have carried oil sands crude from Alberta, Canada, to the American Gulf Coast.
  2. To freeze NEW drilling
  3. Freeze and Stop Artic/Alaska drilling

DoEnergy - Jennifer Granholm

Biden named former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm as his selection to head the Department of Energy on Dec. 17. Granholm led the Wolverine State during the Great Recession, working with the Obama administration to rescue the U.S. auto industry while promoting investments in green energy. Granholm has been a strong advocate of zero-emissions vehicles and her selection is seen as an indication that Biden wants the department to play a principal role in fighting climate change.

EPA - Michael Regan

Regan is no stranger to the agency, having previously served nearly a decade there under both Democratic and Republican presidents. He would be the first African American man to run the EPA if confirmed.Regan is currently secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality.

Taxes, Corporate Rejiggering - Wall Street will NOT ALLOW it to happen!

Manufacturing, innovation, research and development and clean energy

Tax - To take time - be opposed

Undo as much of Trump's corporate (cut from 35% to 21% - Biden wants 28%), and dividend tax cuts as possible, that create inequality.

Law, Administration, Immigration Staff

DOJ - Judge Merrick Garland as AG

Department of Labor - secretary, Marty Walsh

Boston Mayor since 2014 is Biden's nominee for labor secretary

DoHomeland Security

As part of a rollout of major foreign policy and national security appointments and nominees, the president-elect announced he would nominate Alejandro Mayorkas for secretary of homeland security on Nov. 23. Mayorkas was born in Havana and came to the United States as a refugee. If the Senate votes to confirm him to the position, he would be the first Latino and the first immigrant to lead the agency in charge of implementing the nation's immigration policies and border laws. Mayorkas is a veteran of the department; he directed its legal immigration agency and previously served as the deputy secretary of homeland security. He is also one of the architects behind the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (DACA).

Immigration, Refugee, Border Wall

POOR Chances : Comprehensive immigration reform

This threatens to become the cap-and-trade of the Biden administration. While it might get more Hispanic voters in 8 years, that will be uber long term, not helping now, and too much political capital needed now. A bipartisan approach could yield quick agreement on a bill to protect from deportation young adult “Dreamers” brought to the country as children, guarantee their legal status, and define a path to citizenship.

DoInterior Deb Haaland

New Mexico Rep. to lead the Department of the Interior. If confirmed, she would be the first Native American Cabinet secretary.

Real Estate Trends, Housing, Human Benefits, Labor, Education

DoHousing and Urban Development - Marcia Fudge

Biden announced on Dec. 10 he will nominate Ohio Rep. Marcia Fudge to serve as his secretary of housing and urban development. Fudge is a member of the House Agriculture Committee and Committee on Education and Labor. She is a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus and was recently elected to a seventh term in Congress, representing the Cleveland area. Amid the recession brought on by the pandemic, millions of Americans are struggling to pay rent, and federal eviction protections set to expire at the end of 2020. If confirmed by the Senate, Fudge may be forced to grapple with a housing crisis as she takes office.

Education, Student Loans - $1-2T dismissal - NOT HAPPENING!

Student Loans a severe crimp on the economy

DoEducation - Miguel Cardona

Connecticut Education Commissioner Miguel Cardona as his nominee for education secretary during a press conference on Wednesday, Dec. 23. A former public school teacher and student, he is a strong advocate for public education.

Workforce developing

Biden has promised investments in a caregiving economy and skills and training needed by our workers to be able to compete and win in the global economy of the coming years.

State, International Affairs, Security, Military

DofState Antony Blinken

Blinken has advised the president-elect on foreign policy for almost two decades. Previously, he served as deputy national security adviser and deputy secretary of state during the Obama administration. As the country's top diplomat, Blinken would be expected to play a pivotal part in the Biden administration's efforts to rebuild alliances and reenter international agreements like the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Climate Accord, as well as halt the country's exit from the World Health Organization.

DoDefense Army Gen. Lloyd Austin

Biden announced on Dec. 8 he will nominate retired four-star Army Gen. Lloyd Austin to lead the Department of Defense. Austin previously headed the military's Central Command, where he was in charge of all American troops in the Middle East. He retired from the military in 2016, after over four decades of service. Because he is less than seven years removed from active duty, he will require a waiver from Congress to hold the position. If Austin is confirmed, he will become the first Black defense secretary in American history.

CIA

Director of National Intelligence - Avril Haines

Haines is a former deputy director of the CIA, and served as principal deputy national security adviser under former President Barack Obama. She was the first woman to hold both of those roles. If confirmed, she will become the first woman to lead the country's intelligence community.

National Security Adviser

Biden said he would appoint Jake Sullivan as his national security adviser on Nov. 23 previously served as deputy assistant to Obama and as national security adviser to Biden when he was vice president. He's also a former top aide to Hillary Clinton. At 43, Sullivan would be the youngest person to hold the position since the Eisenhower administration.

DoVeterans Affairs - Denis McDonough

Denis McDonough, who served as former President Barack Obama's chief of staff in his second term, will be nominated, Biden said on Dec. 10, to serve as his secretary of veterans affairs. McDonough was previously Obama's principal deputy national security adviser, including during the 2011 Navy SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden. Prior to his eight-year White House tenure, McDonough served in senior leadership and policy-making positions in both chambers of Congress. He's credited with helping Obama bridge divides on Capitol Hill, including gaining support for the Veterans Choice Act which President Donald Trump later signed into law.

Going beyond Iran nuclear deal - Stabilizing force in Mideast

Curb Israeli Greed and Restore ties


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