EV Tech Review

By pjain      Published Jan. 8, 2021, 8:09 p.m. in blog Invest   

TECH/INFRA: EV

  • Lithium-ion battery pack Price per kilowatt-hour
Year Price/kwh No of EVs
2010 $1,110 <1k?
2020 137 >2m?
2022 100 >2m?
  • $100/kwh is the line in the sand that will allow automakers to make mass-market electric vehicles while turning a profit.
  • Some Chinese battery packs replace expensive CO - and at $100 kwh end 2019

EVs lower cost to operate as Solar Cell PVs cheaper than gas

After purchase, EVs are already cheaper to operate than traditional cars, both because they require less maintenance and because electricity is cheaper than fuel.

Massive Green/New Deal from Biden/EU to force CAFE standards

Many Suppliers - still EVs as high end $50k+ cars!

Today, some luxury EVs are already at price parity with their luxury gas counterparts, according to Goldie-Scot, but cheaper batteries will make that true more broadly without any subsidies.

  • Tesla fast mover into Pickups, Semis, Roadster 500k'22? Tesla is the most desired electric vehicle at the moment, it could come under pressure from strong German competition. "In a head-to-head comparison, consumers would still prefer an electric Audi, BMW or Mercedes over a Tesla. The key issue is that these brands still lack competitive products, which could change in 2021," UBS said.

  • Diversification Trend > EV minivans, EV pickup trucks, EV subcompacts, all the way up to EV luxury vehicles, and we’re starting to see that

EV Share remains low at 2-3% for most countries, except Norway at 56%

  • China has ramped up EV sales and rapidly gone from under 1% share in 2015 to 5% by 2019. This is expected to rise rapidly, even as subsidies are "redirected" to BEVs only.
  • USA by 2019 had a 2.1% EV/Total car sales. With expiry of most subsidy programs, likely to stagnate esp. in Covid-19 era as car sales plummet.
  • The larger car markets like France, UK, Germany, Ireland, Austria, Belgium all were 2.8-3.2%.
  • Largest EV share are Norway at 56%, Iceland 23%, Netherlands 15%, Sweden 11%, Portugal and Switzerland at 5.5%.

Per Capita Ownership still very low

Consumer choice with 500+ Models by 2020

Automakers are accelerating their EV launch plans, partly to comply with increasingly stringent regulations in Europe and China. COVID-19 will delay some of these, but by 2022 there will be over 500 different EV models available globally. Consumer choice and competitive pricing will be key to attracting new buyers to the market.

Car tastes differ - SUVs vs EVs

US buyers, meanwhile, tend to prefer sport utility vehicles and trucks that cost less than EVs. For these buyers, current lower petrol prices might put off drivers wanting switch to EVs

A PHEV has extended range as it also includes a traditional internal combustion engine, which kicks in should the battery reach a low level.

Toyota Prius is the most common and oldest PHEV.

EV Passenger Car Technology/Design

Year No/year EV%total
2020 3%
2030 28%

Solar cells on Car Roofs - more for emergency trickle charging

If you stick solar panels on your roof, you can capture sunlight, turn it into electricity, and power your spaceship-like car with that electricity. You’re basically driving on sunlight. Is that ridiculously cool or what?

EV Two Wheelers - KILLER APP

Looking beyond passenger cars, several ‘killer apps’ are emerging for electrification. Two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles) and municipal buses are already going electric quickly and accelerate further in the next ten years. Delivery vans are the next segments to cross the tipping point.

Year No/year EV%total
2020 30%
2030 40%

Role of Two Wheelers - important in India/China

India is also driving growth in electric buses and two-wheeled vehicles

EV Two Wheeler Technology/Design

EV Trucks, LCVs and Buses

China is also driving growth in electric buses and two-wheeled vehicles, accounting for about 99 percent of the world’s stock of the fast-growing categories.

EV Trucking

Trucking Technology/Designs

Municipal Buses

Year No/year EV%total
2020 33%
2030 58%

Light Commercial Vehicles

Year No/year EV%total
2020 2%
2030 18%

EV Battery Technology and Trends

Falling lithium-ion battery prices

Lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 87% from 2010 to 2019, with the volume-weighted average hitting $156/kWh. Li-ion batteries continue to fall -13% in 2019 alone.

Underlying material prices will play a larger role in the future, but the introduction of new chemistries, new manufacturing techniques and simplified pack designs will keep prices falling.

Battery Replacement Packs - done at your location!

Battery Costs Falling and Ranges Increasing

Battery costs are falling - possibly falling 50% or more per decade.

Contains a charging socket and a rechargeable battery that can power the vehicle on its own.

BEVs are the only zero-emission vehicle. They need a far wider and ranging charging networks.

Manufacturers such as SAIC and BMW produce both, battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Role of Ultracapacitors

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is a fan of uItracapacitors and has long viewed the technology as the possible path to a breakthrough in battery performance.

Charging Networks

Rapid growth in Charging Networks

China Controls hurt

Most Chinese city dwellers who would buy an EV also live in apartment buildings where there are no single-car garages. That means coming up with other ways to charge vehicles.


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