Rising Asia: Greater India and China wealthy again : India 2030

By pjain      Published Aug. 1, 2019, 11:17 p.m. in blog Geo-Politics   

India and China dominated 40-50% of world Population for 2000+ years

  • Why so populous? Agriculture in River valleys.

  • Mainly because major rivers from Himalayan Tibet Plateau provided steady water and rich soil - like the Nile

  • Also the Monsoon - blocked by Himalayas - providing steady water in most of India's Gangetic plains.

India and China dominated World GDP till colonial Era

  • GDP graph is looks very similar to the population - economic value of farmer productivity!

1820-1950 Industrial Revolution, Colonial - Domination of India and China

  • The colonial powers using ships dominated the waters esp. international ports
  • By dominating - the Portuguese, Dutch, French and later British successively boomed and had reserve currency.

Military Arms, Brutal Wars behind Western Rise Dominance - biggest threat to global economic

2010+ Rise of Asia: Globalization & Technology - equal opportunity as Nearly equal productivity anywhere

Threats to Asia's Rise

China Han arrogance, suppression of Muslims, minorities, "bribing" and Buying to Dominance of Africa and Asia

Geo-Fragmentation - India vs China, West vs China

Threat of Not Enough Jobs - Who pays for Service economy, AI/Tech/Automation kills jobs

  • Rapid decline of Agriculture Jobs - 300m to 3m?

    China has about 300 million farmers, whereas with mechanization, all of the food that China needs could be produced by maybe 3 million at the most. So if you take the 300 million farmers who are really not adding any value to the economy and get them to do something else that generates wealth, you have a lot more new wealth. Perhaps farmers can work in other low-wage sectors like manufacturing (ie: export driven) or construction (ie: taxpayer funded)? Assuming that China can pull 300 million jobs out of thin air is pretty far-fetched.

  • Not enough jobs for talented Youth

    Even China's factory-floor-of-the-world economy is currently not even generating enough jobs for college graduates.

Threat from Oil-curse, Super Powers and Dictators in Mideast, N. Korea, Latin America


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