Health Sector =====

By pjain      Published July 18, 2020, 7:36 a.m. in blog Invest   

Health Sector

THESIS: Health on deep dips - not going to be f*up by either party

Fear on Medicare for All

This stock really took a hit along with the entire industry earlier this year. There was a fear that politically the climate could change and setup a candidate with a “Medicare for All” plan to take office.

Health

  • h Domestic services/// Drugs - down on threat - MRK PFE ABBV Care - UNH ANTM HUM CoreDivr: JNJ ABT

  • Demos election is good for health - ACA,etc.

  • ACA challenge - illegal if no tax requirement ..

r health Sect

Health esp aging,Medicare

Covid Implications

Contact Tracer, P2P @g

  • GOAL to alert people when they come in close proximity to those carrying the virus

  • v.5 MANUAL - THEORY of Virus Spreading

  • Questionairre - exposure
  • TEST/IDENTIFY those test positive
    • REQUIRES near-Universal testing or highly accessible FASTer testing (or universal pool testing) for the virus ==> real need to identify "exposure" (interview HM/Office but public restaurants?)
  • Trace contact - tracking down others they might have infected
    • Bit more succcessful in "required" in fundamentalist China/India
    • In Singapore, S Korea Contact Tracers done manually originally
    • Army of healthcare workers to question coronavirus carriers about recent contacts
    • Traditionally relied on infected people’s memories to identify individuals with whom they came into contact.
  • Isolate quarantine as 14 days needed to see if symptomatic
    • Elderly 65/70+ isolated to "protect" them
    • ICU shifting of test positives with high isolation hospital wards - even relatives not allowed visits
  • Full circle bubble around exposures - can RAPIDLY slow down new cases
  • Works to substitute for eventual vaccines
  • Don't facemasks cut 98%, shields 90%+ - so "contact" has to be weighted or THOUSANDS will "downpour"

  • Benefits

  • Vital since 60%+ with covid are asymptomatic - so temperature/screening questionaires are not meaningful
  • Work well with testing increase
  • Could contain spread of virus - by back-tracking and quarantining ONLY those that test positive
  • Could help as states more fully relax lockdowns
  • Avoid hiring front line people to contact trace

  • v.8 MANDATORY electronic fences/WEARABLEs enforce 14-day quarantine enforcement - JAIL at Home!

    • Poland intrusive app geo-located photos compels users to take - like in-home lockin to enforce 14-day quarantine
    • SKorea self-isolation mandated backed with huge fine or upto 1 year in prison for violators
    • Hong Kong health authorities use electronic wristbands to monitor all overseas travelers ordered into self-isolation.
  • v1 MANDATORY INTRUSIVE apps

  • RT-GPS location data tracks both carriers, people they come "near" to - eg Czech
    • TECH PROBLEM: Can phones handle the 6' resolution needed - google said no!
    • inaccurately identify strangers as meeting when they’re actually just in the same high-rise apartment building
  • DRONEs Italian police also began mobilizing drones on Monday to enforce restrictions on citizens’ movements.
  • VISA immigration/Airport data
  • Public transportation
  • Credit-card records - location data!

  • C3 PUBLIC LAW AND ORDER/POLICE STATE - NOT JUST GPS!

  • China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore
  • Israel FBI (Shin Bet) 2wk prior track Carriers using historical data to identify contact/transmission
  • Italy North App incl Rome 6m - help log contacts
  • SKorean model of contact tracing immigration, public transportation and credit-card records
  • Flexible/Finetune Red,yellow lockdown areas by block level - as needed

  • v2 voluntary apps NOT good - ADOPTION Problem, Big Brother location data!

  • VZ,T,Sprint/TMobile unclear if sharing location data with govt.
  • Apps download is voluntary - adoption is iffy in USA
  • Many esp. kids don't have smart/GPS phones - india 1/5 in low-end families 1/4 nationally
  • a/g CLAIM building in privacy protections to keep stored data out of government and corporate hands

    • by Encrypted “peer to peer” signals sent from phone to phone; Designed to conceal individual identities and connections.
    • notify users directly of their possible exposure and urge them to get tested.
    • Public/police NOT IN THE LOOP
  • v2 Privacy issues - SEEN AS INTRUSIVE and LIBEL/LEAKAGE issue

  • SKorea leaked so much personal data that digital sleuths were able to identify virus carriers based on such information as where patients visited just before testing positive. Some people boycotted businesses, stigmatized carriers and even used the data to track alleged marital infidelity.

  • v2.2 GPS++, BE TECH to aggregate

  • Location data Google normally gathers from phone users isn’t accurate enough for contact tracing
  • using bluetooth sensors on each other’s cell phones
  • APIs - local/state would build own contact tracing apps
  • Many states have GPS trackers already - not adopted

  • v3 Solutions for nonPII

  • Tina White, a Stanford privacy approach Feb'20
  • Euro Surveill: Tracking people’s movements with aggregated phone location data designed not to identify individuals.
  • Idea for Anonymous Identification and notification could be done
    • Don't tell people where their possible infection came from

Self Identify/Diagnose and NEXT steps

  • Let people self-diagnose with an online questionnaire.
  • If their symptoms are consistent with COVID-19,
  • Get connected with medical professionals to determine next steps.

  • K Health, NYC

  • Says it does not share data with the government, though it does produce a “heat map” of virus spread that it shares with the public.

  • Buoy Health

  • Twenty, Utah

  • Sold state officials on an approach combining Bluetooth with satellite-based GPS signals.
  • unlikely that automated alerts are going to be enough
  • That would let trained health workers help connect the dots and discover previously hidden clusters of infection.

hCare cost reduction - Haven

  • Haven 1.2m emp amzn,jpm,brk - reduce Health emp costs - worse than taxes

Reduce cost by delivering better care

Clover Health 2015 $1b - focus on senior-health

> Specializes in collecting and analyzing medical and behavioral data to provide preventive and first-aid care for patients so they can save on unnecessary hospital visits and prescription drugs.
> Haven is overrated - Vivek Garipalli, founder and CEO

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