Invest Ideas Log By Date

By pjain      Published May 24, 2021, 6:25 p.m. in blog Invest   

InvScr By Sector

r

  • Health, Biotech, Pharma
  • [CRISPR gene editing could reach patients ‘very soon’: Intellia CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/02/crispr-gene-editing-could-reach-patients-very-soon-intellia-ceo.html}
  • [How CRISPR gene editing will treat disease: Intellia founder Doudna](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/how-crispr-gene-editing-will-treat-disease-intellia-founder-doudna-.html}
  • [Biometrics company CLEAR closes higher on first day as public company](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/biometrics-company-clear-opens-higher-on-first-day-as-public-company-.html}

INV TIPS

  • Compunder strategy - Dan Veru of Palisade Capital M
  • Very high ROIC, FCF
  • Multi-decade record of allocating capital and delivering

Dan Genter, RNC Genter Capital Management

Held Cos for Us

WBA sold

  • [Here are three areas driving sales growth at Walgreens](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/three-areas-driving-sales-growth-at-walgreens-.html}
  • [Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Q3 2021 earnings beat](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/walgreens-boots-alliance-wba-q3-2021-earnings.html}

OIL

  • psx dn -20%

New Ideas 7/13/21

ADSK

CNC

  • About Centene: HMO c75
  • Compunder strategy - Dan Veru of Palisade Capital M
  • Very high ROIC, FCF
  • Buying Magellan Health - mental health - WFH depression BOOM

DHR phe

  • Mini-GE - industrials - larger mcap than GE
  • Multi-decade record of allocating capital and delivering

GD RTX NOC - Shipping Boom to project power vs Airplanes

ABNB

--- Priority Trades 6/2021 --- Keep at top

Ride FAANMGT/Nasdaq +20% Lot-wise tracking - buy-solds dump

= Nasdaq going to go up 20% continuing to increase valuations through monetization, if we stay at this pace in Treasury purchases of $100b/mo of QE dumping liquidity in market.

Dredging in Mud for Gold

  • BX
  • SKLZ - Skillz lots of
  • CZR Caesars Entertainment - eBets + Recovery

Semi distruption and winners

USA semis - Darpa 2.0 all over again

Europe wants independence from Asia and US!

  • NXPI
  • Infineon
  • Global Foundries
  • X-FAB
  • Bosch $1.2b power semis IOT auto - private semi 300mm 65 nm 2005- 7 gen behind 7nm!

Back in the 1990s, Europe was competitive with American and Japanese semiconductor companies, with fabs built in the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, the Netherlands and even Italy. Today, of those countries, only Ireland (Intel) and Germany have any 300mm fabs at all, despite having a highly educated workforce and modern technological infrastructure. (Russia has one owned by Crocus Nano Electronics also 65nm in 2015.) Europe’s semiconductor industry has been passed not only by Taiwan and South Korea, but also by China.

While Europe was integrating, its semiconductor m

Asian Semis

  • TSMC - will retain lead - harder to switch process
  • Samsung
  • UMC
  • SMIC, China
  • Unigroup, China

WTF??

  • FRPT freshpet - staples
  • PFGC
  • CHDN
  • WMS
  • CLVT
  • TPL Texas Pacific Land
  • AGL Agilon Health

4 Disrupting, Providing New - but options making bleed

  • DBX, x BOX
  • WIX

Commodity Plays??

  • CLF
  • AA

7 EVs, Battery, Energy

  • PLUG
  • CHPT - infra/EVs - greatest Climate/Greening - only few networks
  • TSP TuSimple
  • RUN - beat tesla? if great mgt and financing??

Builders - Home is a Growth sector

  • MTZ - MasTEc
  • BLD TopBuild
  • RH - buffet liked
  • BLDR Builders First Source
  • DECK
  • TREX

Ideas by Date

RISKS to market - taxing, oil price spikes

  • Anti-regulation, tax cut Trump gives way to free spending Democrats
  • Lower productivity and wage rises as people shift to higher paying jobs
  • PERSISTENT Inflation is a risk

Michael Burry favors stocks

  • Investing Books worth it
  • Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits - Philip Fisher - priced well, bound to grow, can be held for LT - concentrated
    • high profit margins, ROI, high growth, high R&D, superior sales org, leading industry position
    • Really indepth, business grapevine, personal knowledge
  • Why Stocks go Up and Down, by William H Pike - stock 101 ratios
  • Buffettology - deep dive into BUFism
  • Value Investmenting made Easy - Janet Lowe truly understand Ben Graham-isms
  • The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham 1949 and updated often - Burry says built on it
  • Security Analysis by Ben Graham and Dodd - Advanced more technical than Intelligent Investor - CoAnalysis
  • The Big Short - not investing but GFC - Greenblatt - value/special situations - eg Bad PR

DNOW

a supplier of energy and industrial products, equipment and other solutions. NOW's revenue dropped from $2.95 billion in 2019 to just $1.62 billion in 2020 amid economic shutdowns and extreme headwinds in the energy market. NOW's stock price plummeted 36.1% in 2020, but Burry appears to see the dip as a buying opportunity ahead of a potential economic rebound in 2021. That bet has paid off so far in 2021, and NOW shares are already up almost 50% year to date. Scion holds 1.5 million shares of DNOW stock worth about $15.7 million

RPT

RPT Realty is an open-air shopping center real estate investment trust. Shopping centers were crushed by their e-commerce competitors in 2020 during the health crisis. However, opportunistic investors are betting on pent-up shopping demand in 2021 once the vaccination rollout is complete. RPT's rent collections have already improved to 91% as of the fourth quarter. In its earnings call, management said the company's balance sheet is strong and it is monitoring a strong pipeline of acquisitions. RPT stock pays a 2.6% dividend. Scion holds 1 million shares of RPT stock worth about $10.8 m

UNIT

Uniti is a unique real estate investment trust focused on communications infrastructure. After divesting Uniti Towers and Talk America, the company is now a pure play on fiber infrastructure. Windstream is Uniti's biggest customer, accounting for more than half of its revenue and more than 80% of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Windstream provides both a steady cash flow and a large degree of stability for Uniti's business. The stock also pays a 5.1% dividend. Scion holds 725,000 shares of UNIT stock worth about $8.6 million.

WDC

Western Digital designs and produces storage solutions for data centers, mobile devices, personal computers and other applications. While many tech stocks have soared, Western Digital has stagnated over the past year. However, the company reported an earnings beat last quarter, and Morgan Stanley recently said a massive chip shortage in the semiconductor industry will be a bullish catalyst for memory prices. Burry may also like that Western Digital is an attractive value stock, trading at just 11 times forward earnings. Scion holds 150,000 shares of WDC stock worth about $10.5 million.

ALL

Allstate is a leading public U.S. personal lines property-casualty insurance company. The pandemic created an unprecedented environment for insurers in 2020. Allstate shares sold off aggressively in March 2020 on concerns that the company would see a spike in life insurance and business-continuity insurance payouts. Low interest rates have historically been bad news for insurance stock valuations. Allstate was somehow able to grow both revenue and earnings in 2020, yet its stock is still down 10% since the beginning of 2020. Scion holds 75,000 shares of ALL stock worth about $8 million.

QRTEA

Qurate Retail is the owner of home shopping TV networks QVC and HSN. Prior to the health crisis, investors were understandably concerned with the ability of traditional TV home shopping networks to compete with online retailers such as Amazon (AMZN) and Shopify (SHOP). In fact, Qurate's revenue was down 4.3% and it generated a net loss of $456 million in 2019. However, the company began generating significant profits starting in the second quarter of 2020, and net income was up 372% year over year in the quarter ending in December 2020. Scion holds 700,000 shares of QRTEA stock worth about $8.8 million.

China

China tried the carrot to lure China overseas listings to HK (Alibaba and http://JD.com, etc) but now it will use the stick (Ant Financial, Didi). HK SFC has an MOU with China on investigations while the SEC still has the PCAOB looming on the horizon for PRC issuers. - William Marshall 7/4/21

Didi and 2 apps that listed on NYSE got shafted blocked for new users by China regulators - likely for month(s). THey used as excuse that want for data privacy of citizens.

The 5 big tech companies literally spy on and collect data from 300m Americans and the China regulatory authority doesn’t want didi acting like google. And Cramer was encouraging people to buy as many shares [of DIDI] as they could at the IPO.

This is why I almost never own China based companies. The CCP and the companies themselves like Luckin are a constant black swan. And don’t get me started about auditors on China based companies - Vincent Au

Infra Plays

CAT

  • 6/21 c217 +31% over FV by M*
  • Big yellow construction machines
  • went down as infra did not happen immediately, but now going up

VMC

  • 6/21 +120% yoy
  • aggregates - southwest,texas - can't ship across country

DE

  • 6/21 +120% yoy
  • Big green machines for AG

URI

  • 6/21

  • More overvalued than DE,CAT

  • Faster moving
  • About: rent vs buy

MLM

  • Bought heidelbirg cement in CA

CX

Sad Cases

----xx--- Danger! IPOs, SPACs - all for Exits!

x LAD Lithia motors

6 Revenue PHE Overloved Sexy for Entertainment, Online millennials

  • DKNG
  • PENN

5 PS way to high, but core business

5 Biotech - never profitable - all risk, no predictability

  • CVAC

4 Too crowded space - all lookalike

  • PSFE paysafe

3 Never going to be Profitable - OPTIONS

Bleeding SPACs - Run for Founders, All heading for Exits!

  • CLOVer
  • OPEN
  • AI
  • PLTR
  • WISH
  • DASH
  • GRUB

3 MEME stocks - Shorting hurt the HFs

  • GME AMC WEN

1 No Core business - zero revenue

=== INV Ideas By Date, Macros, GeoPol impact

Fed, Fiscal Deficits - bat shit crazy

  • The stock market is in a mania in financial assets fueled by the Federal Reserve and investor speculation that will end badly.
  • The merging of the Fed and the Treasury .. everybody loves a party [but hate the big] hangover.
  • [Big cap] companies stock splits .. then go up 50%, 30%, 40% .. Splits creates no value, but the stocks still go up.
  • [BTFD PITFALLS] - Even after market goes down 10% .. there is no valuation support just because we dropped 10% .. as we are far outside the valuation realm.
  • With the Fed doing what they're doing, that does not matter. But I would say that the next 3-5 years is going to be very very challenging.
  • Druckenmiller

Macros 101

USD Reserve fading fast!

Buybacks Recovery Role

Global GeoPol

--- INFLATION TRADES 6/15/21+ ACTIONABLE - inflation trade = buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold

Commodities SELECT - lumber

  • sort of screwed up on bullwhip/supplychain reopening effect - but can be opportunity

Munis Select Tax Free

Bonds Avoid

  • Avoid bonds as any bump in inflation will dump prices massively!

Stanley Druckenmiller - inflation trade

  • $4 Billion Duquesne Capital Family Fund since 1981, and worked for Soros esp Brit Pound'92, got control of Soros HF in 1989 and worked together till 2000. Closed in 2010 when it had $12b after good perf 30% of 20yrs
  • Bought BTC, Gold,

Paul Tudor Jones - inflation trade

  • Paul Tudor Jones said he's keeping 5% of his assets in bitcoin, 5% in gold, 5% in commodities, 5% in cash in June 2021

---- Money Devaluation Defense - Commodities, Precious

Crypto Volatile Benefits

  • Don't pay up for high P/S stocks like COIN - just buy BTC - PKJ

BTC

  • If the gold bet works, the Bitcoin bet will probably work better because it’s thinner, more illiquid and has a lot more beta to it. - Druckenmiller

Ethereum

AltCoin

Supply Chain Exploitation or Bullwhip? 6/15/2021

Reddit Meme Stocks

SHORT SQUEEZE by Indiv Fractional stock holders vs biggies. Retail investors realised their potential power in early January 2021 when a loosely-coordinated strategy was formed on Reddit’s WallStreetBets chatroom to buy shares and out-of-money call options on stocks that were being targeted by short-sellers to push the price higher.

NOT JUST POPULAR Stocks - Apple, etc. while popular are not part of this - as too mega cap, and no short squeeze potential!

! NOK 18xf netw $+22% Lucent integ will help alt to ERICY => Biden/EU to help more! r BB y+173% m+60% shifted to enterprise security, software, deals BIDU,AWS,auto QNS FY'19 $+15% FY'20 covid hurt $1.1b loss

vol x TLRY merged 5/21 Aphria - largest - biden promise squeeze $20>$67 vol? CLOV - medicare Adv

WEN +5% CLNE up 20% this week WOOF Petco Health & Wellness Co CRSR CLF Cleveland-Cliffs ? PEI REIT c3.4 m+65%

x BBBY c36 ytd 270% x Wish ContextLogic x GME x AMC Xx SNDL risky cannabis Q1 $y-30%, -45% qoq - POST-COVID FELL! sells shares>burns it! x PLTR - PS 40x, insider sales to continue - Says can maintain 30% $growth for four years

x UMWS-MY malaysia inv holding co penny stock X NKLA x WKHS Workhorse Group x NIO

Reopening play - Malls Closing - Vultures

  • Support by local communities - huge jobs and sales tax base
  • 1955s automobile reliant "fun fun" for all in family
  • 80s mall rats teens
  • 90s Mega malls Mall of America
  • 2016 25 sqft/capital -OVERBUILT - Fast Fashion 248 Class A, 384 B, 307 C, 108 D or lower Sears, Target, standalone strip mini-malls closing down - repurpose as warehouses etc - SRG PROBLEM: Need to spend a LOT to look GREAT - an experience - if your profits don't keep up - loose traffic - like Kmart/ToysRus/Sears..
  • 2020 Covid really hurt
    • Change in shopping habits to eCommerce - Accelerated RAPIDLY
    • WFH - rural/suburban - helps
    • AVOID DANGERS Bankruptcies - CBL (107 no, 67m sft), PREIT (19+ malls 22m sqft)
    • Taubman Center - really hurt also
    • Westfield - CA, etc. got sold at super high price brought down European buyer!
    • Failed disposing poor perf,adding movie,games,grocery, gym clubs, resell office spaces
  • Post Covid Recovery Plays? Need to be super selective

Brookfield smart - buying at very low prices SPG - partner with Brookfield - focus on preserving value of (Bought Brook Bros, F21, JCP, Lucky, to avoid "empty look") - fourth-quarter revenue dropped by 24% on a year-over-year basis to $1.1 b - Had to sue tenants like Gap to pay rent - Claims healthy balance sheet - high quality malls trying to preserve = 10 Story office, restaurants, ice-skating rinks, church, health care buildings .. attract SRG bought Sears - repurpose as warehouses etc

INV Screens - JAN 2021 Deep Down? find hidden value


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