Invest Market Log Scr

By pjain      Published June 30, 2021, 4:55 p.m. in blog Invest   

Market Log July 2021

Explaining Market Rise and Predicting 2021

Recovery to 2019 highs was expected as ..

- Covid 19 fully compensated/insured against at

Explaining Market Rise BEYOND Multi-year highs

  • Stimulus
  • Profits expected to be higher on inflation, pricing power of all firms
  • Expected spurt of post C19 pull forward demand

Unemployment Remains high as Open Jobs at 9.3m

Unemployed job seekers who said they weren’t urgently looking for work Just knowing that there are a lot of job openings out there could dissuade some people from searching too hard—the easy pickings seem likely to continue.

  1. Biggest hurdle was continued worries about Covid-19 as in past front line workers have died
  2. Care responsibilities and Spousal employment
  3. Liberal unemployment benefits often more than they get at work
  4. Having financial cushions (also big expense like mortgage/rent deferment)
  5. Employers reduced capacity, workforce needed, some automation and restructuring things after C19
  6. Workers looking for change of jobs instead of subsisting on minimum wage urban jobs

Geographical Disruption

  1. Workers are moving out of no-jobs/shuttered inner urban areas as they relocate to outer areas without subway, etc. Often suburbs eating places/bars can fill jobs while inner city ones struggle to fill positions.

Sep'21 FLIP - Role of Schools and Day Care

  1. Most schools will be back to in-person learning this fall, which could alleviate child-care issues
  2. Expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits will end for all states in Sep while 20+ Red states ended in June
  3. Also the summer vacation season will be over.

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