Lifespans in Countries

By pjain      Published Jan. 25, 2021, 1:27 a.m. in blog Health   

Lifespan by Country Key Factors and Dynamics

GDP Lifespan - Preston Curve

The Preston Curve, comparing countries, plots a country’s life expectancy against its national income, measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

It is likely it is a stronger trendline with GPP.

SRC: Radeksz, Wikipedia

Preston curve - Life Expectancy rises with Wealth - Preston Curve

Life Expectancy and Wealth relationship is shown by the Preston curve shows cross-country data for 2005. The x-axis shows GDP per capita in 2005 international dollars, the y-axis shows life expectancy at birth. Each dot represents a particular country. Clearly the

Criticism: Point in time - relationship shifts over time

The Preston curve is a relationship found in cross-country data - that is, it holds for a sample of countries taken at a particular point in time. Some research however suggests that a similar relationship does not hold in time series and longitudinal data within individual countries.[6] In particular, per capita incomes between countries have generally diverged over time, while life expectancies, and other health indicators such as the infant mortality rates, have converged (this trend was interrupted in the 1990s with the outbreak of the AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa). This suggests that over time changes in income may have no impact on health or even be negatively related.

Is GPP a better predictor - cost of health care in local currency and costs

Preston curve does not define Causality

The simple "correlation" between per capita income and healthspan does not imply that the causality runs from income to health.

It could actually be the reverse, ie better health, as proxied by life expectancy, boosts higher incomes. Better health can increase incomes because healthier individuals tend to be more productive than sick ones; on average they work harder, longer and are more capable of focusing efficiently on production tasks.[6] Furthermore, better health may affect not just the level of income but also its growth rate through its effect on education.[6] Healthier children spend more time at school and learn faster, thus acquiring more human capital which translates into higher growth rates of incomes later in life. Diseases such as malaria can short circuit these processes.[12] Likewise there is evidence that more healthy individuals save more and thus contribute to the faster accumulation of physical capital of an economy.[6] Jeffrey Sachs in particular has emphasized the role that the disease burden has played in the impoverishment of countries located in the tropical zones.[13]

The problem of reverse causality between health and income means that any estimates of the impact of income on life expectancy could mistakenly reflect the influence of life expectancy (more generically, health) on income instead. As such, studies which do not account for this potential two-way causation may overestimate the importance of income for life expectancy. In economic research, this kind of problem has traditionally been dealt with through the use of instrumental variables which allow the researcher to separate out one effect from another.[9] This strategy requires identification of an "instrument" – i.e. a variable which correlates with per capita income but not with the error term in the linear regression. However, since any variable which is likely to correlate with income is also likely to correlate strongly with health and life expectancy this is a difficult task. Some research suggests that in low and middle-income countries, the causality does indeed go from income to health, while the opposite is true for rich countries.

---- Poor Countries and Life Expectancy

Malnutrition is a key factor for poor countries

  • Basic foods and Vitamins eg Vit D prevents rickets, folic supplements are added to processed milk and flour to restore have cut neural tube defects considerably

Rapid Gains as Per Capita Income Rises from $100s to $1000

Individuals born in richer countries, on average, can expect to live longer than those born in poor countries.

Significantly at low levels of per capita income, further increases in income are associated with large gains in life expectancy

GDP Lifespan - Sharp at $2000/yr Knee - As Infant Mortality falls

A knee point occurs around the per capita income level of $2,045 (data for the year 2000) which is about the per capita income level of India. This level of income is generally associated with a crossing of a "epidemiological transition", where countries change from having most of their mortality occur due to infant mortality to that due to old age mortality, and from prevalence of infectious diseases to that of chronic diseases.

A more accurate nonparametric regression on the data produces a version of the curve which has a "hinge" – i.e. a kink in the relationship where the slope of the regression equation falls off significantly. This point occurs around the per capita income level of $2,045 (data for the year 2000) which is about the per capita income level of India. This level of income is generally associated with a crossing of a "epidemiological transition", where countries change from having most of their mortality occur due to infant mortality to that due to old age mortality, and from prevalence of infectious diseases to that of chronic diseases.

HYGIENE: In-expensive anti-parasites and germ vaccinations: de-worming, DPT, malaria, Measles

Often very inexpensive methods can create huge local benefits

  • A ten cent pill single dose for de-worming has had huge benefits in India and Africa - often for years later in well-being, raised productivity and incomes.

The poorest countries economic growth may be necessary for improvements in health, as even the most inexpensive technologies have a cost of adoption that poor countries may not be able to afford.

Thus sanitation and a supply of clean water to prevent water-borne diseases, has a fixed cost but huge benefits.

Compulsory in-school and at-birth vaccinations have a huge benefit esp preventing DPT and measles. Polio vaccination is cheap and very effective in giving normal growth to children.

Control of disease vectors such as spraying malaria control chemicals and draining excess swamps also boosts health and productivity.

GERM Diseases and Income : Health - a 2-way causality

Diseases such as malaria can short circuit the productivity and learning processes of the majority of children in an area.

In turn better health may in turn raise the level of income but also its growth rate through its effect on education. Healthier children spend more time at school and learn faster, thus acquiring more human capital which translates into higher growth rates of incomes later in life.

Global Impact of Dying Early, NCD burden

  • WHO Global Burden of Disease Project, which estimates that the number of years lost to premature death or compromised by disability in 2010 was 2.5b ie a third of potential human life goes to waste.
  • By 2050, the number of people aged 60 years and older will increase from 841 million to about 2B. - WHO

Aging = Exponential Cost of Health Care Costs

Longer lives have run exactly parallel to the increase in chronic illness and the explosion in healthcare costs. Can we possibly afford to live even longer – much less radically longer? - American bioethicist Daniel Callahan.

Aging = Marker of Society Affluence, Knowledge Based Economy

  • Anti Aging scientists retort they are making seniors fitter and healthier in 70s+ and reducing health care costs of senescence.

The savings you get from having people healthy and productive in society ... are in the order of trillions of dollars and that money can be poured back into things such as education and infrastructure.

"Every nation that has increased lifespan and health has become a richer nation," he says. "It's pure economics. The healthier your population, the wealthier is your nation, not the other way around. Chronic diseases and healthcare costs have exploded because there are more people reaching old age. But the key difference are the costs associated with healthy aging and unhealthy aging." -- Kennedy of Buck Institute

Health-Span not just Doddering Old fogies

I want to die at 75. "Living too long is ... a loss.. It renders many of us, if not disabled, then faltering and declining, a state that may not be worse than death but is nonetheless deprived. It robs us of our creativity and ability to contribute to work, society, the world." - Oncologist and bioethicist Ezekiel Emanuel

Lifespan Gap - Rich vs Poor

  • Longevity Science Panel in Britain was set up by the insurance provider Legal and General to look at how various factors affect life expectancy.

  • Widening rich-poor mortality gap in England

  • A boy born in one of the most advantaged 20 percent of neighbourhoods in 2015 can now expect to outlive his counterpart, born in one of the least advantaged 20 percent of neighbourhoods, by 8.4 years. In 2001, that gap was 7.2 years. For girls, the difference has risen from 5 years to 5.8 years over the same period. ... A sixty-year-old man living in the most advantaged 20 percent of neighbourhoods could expect to live 4.1 years longer than his counterpart from the least advantaged 20 percent in 2001, increasing to 5.0 years longer in 2015. A sixty-year-old women living in the most advantaged 20 percent of neighbourhoods could expect to live 3.1 years longer than her counterpart in the least advantaged 20 percent in 2001, increasing to 4.2 years longer in 2015.

Life Expectancy Sharp Bump above $2000/yr - As Infant Mortality falls

A more accurate nonparametric regression on the data produces a version of the curve which has a "hinge" – i.e. a kink in the relationship where the slope of the regression equation falls off significantly. This point occurs around the per capita income level of $2,045 (data for the year 2000) which is about the per capita income level of India. This level of income is generally associated with a crossing of a "epidemiological transition", where countries change from having most of their mortality occur due to infant mortality to that due to old age mortality, and from prevalence of infectious diseases to that of chronic diseases.

Nature of Economy makes a huge difference

The source of income growth, rather than growth itself has been shown to be significant, finding divergences from the Preston Curve partially explained by the main reason for uplift of per-capita income, and its equality of distribution.

Mining and Oil as basis of income growth has far less benefit than other industries

The mining dominated economies suffer in health and education. Perhaps this is due to inequality of distribution of fruits of output - typical in oil (bulk of income skimmed off top by Sheikhs/despots/dictators), and mine-ownership in hands of foreign corporations with crony capitalism and corruption preventing profits from going to the people.

Ryan Edwards 2015 doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.013

Religion can make a HUGE impact

Catholicism used to deny contraception and abortion to women

Pro-live movements similarly kept a lot of black women with kids in welfare but poverty

As revealed by Freakanomics, with legalization of abortion, incomes of blacks in USA dramatically rose, and their health and lifespans.

Muslim traditionalism keep women marry early - more maternal and infant fatalities

Abusive Totalitarian States, Neo-Colonial states

Large "Avoidable" Deaths - Accidents, Drugs, Smoking/Lung Cancer

Post USSR, Russian life expectancy fell dramatically on Drinking, poor social

Dictators can kill tens of millions - China's Mao, Cambodia Khymer Rouge as examples

Globalists, Elitists and Genocide = Hitler, Churchill, Clinton killed tens of millions TODO

Refugee Camps, Palestinians Suffer under Unfeeling "Betters"

Sub-Saharan African countries life expectancy declined mainly due to HIV/AIDS

Several poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have actually seen declines in life expectancy in the 1990s and 2000s as a result of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, even if their per capita incomes have increased during this time.

Law and Order and Democracy Sanity Helps

Very few accidents, domestic violence

Fewer Suicides

Gun Control/Bans reduce deaths and violent crime

Public Transports Low Auto Deaths

City states and Strong Regional Responsibility Helps Health

  • Consider case of tight city states like HKO, Singapore and to a lesser extent Japan. They all have very good yet affordable health care systems and long lifespans.

? Homogenous Populations do they help boost health Care

1960-2000 MUCH Lower Heart/BP/Strokes

  • The higher age in 80s makes it clear that cancer is top cause of death - 28.72% of men and 20.01% of women born in Japan in 2018 will die of cancer. Due to advanced lifesciences, if it could be eradicated, reducing the number of cancer deaths to zero, it is estimated that men would live 3.54 years, and women 2.84 years, longer.

Social Politics/Policy can change Life Expectancy

Large Variations within a Region

Indigenous peoples suffer on Reservations at hands of "Whites"

  • In three different countries (AU NZ and CA) even in 2007 the Aboriginal and indigenous peoples lifespans are 7-10 years less than the non-indigenous parts of their populations. - SRC Australia Department of Health

USA Bad - Lifespan Key Factors - Lowest in Developed World

Regulatory Issues of Aging in USA

FDA doesn't recognize Aging as a disease - won't authorize RCTs

Clinical trials on humans are lengthy and costly. In the US, the Food and Drug Administration's refusal to recognise ageing as a disease. FDA is holding up the testing of drugs already on the market that have been shown to increase lifespan, such as the immunosuppressant rapamycin and diabetes treatment metformin.

Lifespan fell on Opioid Emergency caused by Republican-Pharma bedmates

Refusal to allow State Databases

USA Spends Twice other developed Countries - Gets negative value

In 2000, the USA lay just below the curve, indicating that it had a slightly lower life expectancy than other rich countries.

USA Guns, Cars, Drugs, Suicides and Opioids caused decline in Lifespan

  • US preventable deaths rapidly rose after Bush Jr regime killed FDA regulation and esp. Republican or Red States allowed Pharma companies to prescribe 200/100 individuals while Democratic Blue states like CA,MA only had 55/100 prescriptions.

Ironically smoking rates declined rapidly among adults so lung cancer deaths fell, but was being replaced by vaping, and thousands of deaths are being caused by unknown additives substances in it esp in cannabis infused vaping.

USA Spends Twice other developed Countries - Gets negative value

In 2000, the USA lay just below the curve, indicating that it had a slightly lower life expectancy than other rich countries.

USA Guns, Cars, Drugs, Suicides and Opioids caused decline in Lifespan

  • US preventable deaths rapidly rose after Bush Jr regime killed FDA regulation and esp. Republican or Red States allowed Pharma companies to prescribe 200/100 individuals while Democratic Blue states like CA,MA only had 55/100 prescriptions.

Ironically smoking rates declined rapidly among adults so lung cancer deaths fell, but was being replaced by vaping, and thousands of deaths are being caused by unknown additives substances in it esp in cannabis infused vaping.

Mid Tier Developed Countries not so good

Mid-tier Developed Health Systems Stagnate or even Decline

Australia "Cheap" but Racist, Fundamentalism hurt Abroginals

UK NHS "Cheap" but Racist, Fundamentalism hurt

75 Male/80+ Female - Better Developed Countries

Doing Single Payer or State Health Care Well

New Zealand Small but good

Canada "Cheap" but Racist, Fundamentalism hurt

Germany

Switzerland|81|85.4

Norway| 81 | 85?

Sweden| 81 | 85?

Top Lifespans in Countries - Key Lessons from HKO/Japan and Singapore

By Country with Top Lifespans

Country Men Women
HKO 82.2 87.6
Japan 81.2 87.3
Switzerland 81 85.4
Norway 81 85?
Sweden 81 85?
Spain 80 85.5
* Data for 2017

Japanese Longevity Miracle Post WWII

HKO

Singapore

Technology Enabled Lifespan Extended

GDP Lifespan Preston curve Gains Flatten at very wealthy levels > $18,000/yr

However, the link between income and life expectancy flattens out so at high levels of income, increased income has little associated change in life expectancy.

GDP Lifespan - Health Technology can change Life Expectancy

  • A - new health technology is uniformly applicable across countries

    In the 1900s with rapid advances new health technology has lifted the curve upwards! Preston's study was that the curve has shifted upwards during the 20th century. This means that life expectancy has increased in most countries, independently of changes in income. Preston credited education, better technology, vaccinations, improved provision of public health services, oral rehydration therapy and better nutrition with these exogenous improvements in health.

  • B - new health technology helps rich countries more

  • C - new health technology helps poor countries more

SRC: Radeksz, Wikipedia

mHealth Technology can change Life Expectancy

Health AI Technology can change Life Expectancy


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