- Scoring systems Lessons and BPR
- Political Scoring systems - back tested
Scoring systems Lessons and BPR
Need to backtest
Adequacy and Prediction Accuracy Evaluation
Sensitivity Analysis on Contributors - Refine your Scoring system
- Consider a 10 question scoring system
Weighting Factors Analysis - can refine weighting to backtest
Political Scoring systems - back tested
Lichtman backtested Election Scoring System 1860 to 1980
He’s accurately predicted presidential elections for four decades.
Allan has used the keys to accurately predict every election. First in 1984, calling it two years early before anyone even knew who Reagan’s contender would be. In 1988, calling it in spring when Bush was trailing Dukakis. Again in ‘92, ‘96 and in 2000, when he called it for Al Gore? Hey, Allan. “No, no, I wasn’t wrong. I correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote. When I first developed the system in ‘81, you had to go all the way back to 1888 to find a divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College vote.”
About Lichtman's scoring system
The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races.
KEY: Voters can see through Campaign Ads, tricks
History tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.
Better than pollsters and Pundits opinions
Why are polls nearly worthless? “They are snapshots in time. None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.”
KEY: Understand American presidential elections as stability vs Eartquake
- TRUE If people are happy, stability means the party holding the White House keeps the White House.
FALSE But if things are not going well, you get disruption ie the White House party is turned out of power
The White House party gained House seats between midterm elections.
- There is no primary contest for the White House party
- The incumbent seeking. The sitting president is running for re-election.
- There is no third-party challenger.
- The short-term economy is strong
- Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms.
- The White House has made major changes to national policy
- There is no social unrest during the term
- The White House is untainted by scandal
- The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad. “
- The White House has a major success abroad.
- The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic.
The challenger is uncharismatic
Interpreting above Allan says “the keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.”
KEY: Performance matters more than Traits or Candidate Personality
Of the 13 keys only two of have anything to do with the traits of the candidates. A
- He’s taught history at American University for almost 50 years.(@AllanLichtman) is a professor of history at American University.
- Opinion | Allan Lichtman Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020. - The New York Times
- 13 Keys to the Presidency, 2020