Space Science Industry Review, Applications, Keys and Uses
- Space Technology that Enables Space Power
- ---- BM$ Space Industry Key Factors, Size and Trends
- Geographic Demand
- Revenue Tracking
- Potential Market - $400b'2019
- 80% of Revenue from Space Satellite - not enough to sustain Trillion dollar space industry
- Space Infrastructure, Speciality beyond CORE Launchers
- Govt Financing of Private Space Companies for Innovation
- Contracts to Replace NASA,etc. Shuttle
- 5G/Global Rural Broadband esp. LEO
- Traditional Space Industry
- National Security, Hypersonic Missiles and Space Force as a Space Tech Driver
- Commercialization of Space beyond Comm
- Human Flight beyond Space Adventures, National Ego Trips and Tourism
Space Technology that Enables Space Power
r Space Science
- Space Science and Education Guide
- Space Arms Race - Private Rockets, Near Earth Internet BM$ and Satellites
- Mars Missions, Exploration and Habitation
- Aerial Imagery, 3D and Big Data Analysis
- Space Junk Problem and Solutions
Disruption by Smaller Fast Innovators
The key drive seems to be disruption of industry’s large aerospace and defense companies that are too used to fat government contracts.
It is likely that disruptors like Musk's SpaceX will stay on top in the space industry in the 2020s.
Rockets - Reusable
SpaceX has the heaviest rockets - competitive with Saturn and Apollo but far cheaper per launch due to their reuse.
Disruptors include U.S. based Rocket Lab and Italian builder Avio
Satellites Low Weight, High Communication
Cybersecurity enables space utilization
A rapidly increasing number of countries with operations and assets in space will see heightened focus on cybersecurity and a ripple effect on the space industry.
LEO orbit Internet Communications, 5G promise
- Latency is an issue
Space Junk a key problem
---- BM$ Space Industry Key Factors, Size and Trends
- Non-U.S. space funding doubled in 2019
Russia - Solid working HUGE rockets!
- China leads in non-US Space Funding, making up 34% of the private funding doled out to space companies in the fourth quarter of 2019
$140.5 million for China-based Qianxun Spatial Intelligence.
Japan’s Hayabusa2, which landed on an asteroid, and China’s Chang’e 4 lunar lander, the first of its kind to land on the far side of the Moon. Unfortunately, the European Space Agency is mired in €159 million of debt as cited in their 2016 annual report. Interestingly, Luxembourg is currently positioning itself as a hub for smaller rocket and asteroid mining companies by being the first European nation to pass legislation regarding asteroid mining. Already, asteroid mining companies such as Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries (now Bradford Space Inc.) have set up subsidiaries or offices there.
- Japan is quietly boosting presence eg ispace, Astroscale, ALE and Synspective
- 2017 - $329 B earned globally in 2017 %age | Function -------|-------------- 38% | Commercial infrastructure and support - all for satellites 38% | Commercial space products and services - much higher volume and offshored 14% | US government space budget - military and NASA - but high priced launches 10% | Non-US government space budgets - usually military
Potential Market - $400b'2019
The commercial space industry includes satellites, rockets, probes, or any other space element used for commercial purposes. And, as a subset, the commercial space exploration industry refers to companies that are focused on launching rockets, such as SpaceX and Blue Origin.
Wall Street analysts early 2019 predicted space will be the next trillion-dollar industry.
80% of Revenue from Space Satellite - not enough to sustain Trillion dollar space industry
- 2016 : $260 B or 80% prcent of the space revenue in the United States was related to satellite and telecommunication companies and endeavors.
- Ironically, with the increased demand for global internet, GPS, and military defense, it is likely that the higher percentage of space revenue will continue to skew toward the satellite industry for the near future.
- Only about 0.1 percent of commercial space sector revenue is from non-satellite related commercial ventures.
Satellites Payload KEY VALUE - not rockets!
Although rocket companies such as SpaceX and United Launch Alliance are an integral part of the launch infrastructure, the real revenue is in the payload asset value itself: satellites.
- 2017 97% of spacecraft launches in 2017 were satellites - mainly launched outside the USA by cheaper rockets. The remaining 3% of launches were 14 ISS crew or cargo missions, one experimental mission, and one telemetry test mission - basically funded by NASA.
Satellite companies exist in telecommunication, TV, defense, and GPS sectors, to name a few. Surprisingly, satellite television actually made up 28 percent of the total revenue from satellite companies. They are a primary customer for commercial launches at the moment and are a great way to test out newer rocket technology.
LEO CubeSet Innovation - MULTIPLE per rocket, Reducing per satellite costs
Almost all of the satellite launches were to low-Earth orbit (LEO) due to their applications primarily for telecommunication, military, GPS, and experimental use. There are now over 1,450 active satellites in LEO, and space is getting crowded. Two thousand seventeen also saw an increase in educational and experimental launches—most notably using the CubeSat platform. CubeSats are a miniaturized satellite platform developed by California Polytechnic State University and Stanford engineers to allow for small-scale experiments in LEO. Often utilized by university and lab research teams, CubeSats have made space experiments more affordable and accessible and one-third of 2017 launches included CubeSat payloads. Of the total number of launched CubeSats, two-thirds were for experimental, research, or commercial purposes rather than military.
Space Infrastructure, Speciality beyond CORE Launchers
Satellite tracking market, too, which will also become more and more important in the IoT era – where everything is smart and trackable, and companies will leverage satellites to track their IoT assets.
Govt Financing of Private Space Companies for Innovation
SEEKING INNOVATION - In general practice, commercial startups are funded by investors and are not held accountable by justifying the expense of government dollars or suffer the micro-managing. Thus, private companies are more willing in fact MUST innovate and take risks, which is traditionally uncommon in the space industry.
SUBSTANTIAL COST SAVINGS. NASA began seeing significant savings per launch by contracting out to private companies, eg REUSABILITY, and using "GOOD ENOUGH" components.
REDUCE RUSSIAN DEPENDENCIES. The Shuttle program being aborted due to its age, massive expenses and hard to maintain tiles, etc. As such USA faced like the rest of the world to rely on Russian rockets to launch satellites, etc. In particular contracts were issued to support launches to supply ISS support obligations.
2006, NASA and the US Congress announced the introduction of the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Program to encourage private companies to pursue rocket technology for International Space Station (ISS) cargo and crew delivery. NASA would be the customer instead of the full provider and subsequently outsourced much of the contracted work to private companies in an effort to enhance public-private partnerships
2008 SpaceX was NASA's first signed contractor.
Contracts to Replace NASA,etc. Shuttle
5G/Global Rural Broadband esp. LEO
Traditional Space Industry
Internet, Satellites going to Broadband
Companies will increasingly use satellites to fix the world’s internet problem and beam high-speed connectivity to everyone, everywhere.
Traditional Space Satellite - not enough to sustain Trillion dollar space industry
There’s the satellite imaging market, which will become increasingly important in the self-driving era since dynamic satellite imagery will provide important landscape and terrain data for autonomous vehicles.
Climate Change Monitoring
National Security, Hypersonic Missiles and Space Force as a Space Tech Driver
Q How serious and urgent plans for DoD's Space Force?
At the 2018 Morgan Stanley Space conference, participants were surveyed on the "Need for a Space Force: On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest sense of urgency." - The average of the responses was 3.5 indicating not immediate - however China may preempt this!
Q Satellite Killers - India and China have demonstrated this as well
Hypersonics and 7500mph Missiles anywhere in the world!
- Military Applications - 7500mph Delivery Rockets
- National security segment
- National security segment
- National security segment
Commercialization of Space beyond Comm
Mining the Asteroid Belt
SpaceX Heavy rocket is best positioned for this.
There is an abundance of water in asteroids, the Moon and Mars.
Eventually, considering the shortage of drinkable water on Earth - eventually space based food production might be feasible.
Human Flight beyond Space Adventures, National Ego Trips and Tourism
Space Tourism - Passion of Space for Millionaire Bragging Rights!
Virgin Galactic IPOs via SPAC!
$120 million for Virgin Galactic was raised from VCs in 2019.
Virgin Galactic is “the leading indicator” for both the demand and impact of human spaceflight. HIGH STATUS AND PRESTIGE. Till now as only astronauts have gone up! It has seen steadily increasing demand from prospective space tourists .. by [end 2020] we’ll re-open those sales,” to fly to space, .. in the past it has 603 reservations on its books, have gone for $250,000 per person as intro prices. - Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides
Virgin Galactic froze ticket sales after a crash in 2014 killed a pilot during a test flight. After updating its spacecraft, and spending the last few years verifying its safety, Virgin Galactic has flown five people to space on two successful test flights.
Virgin Galactic will move its spacecraft Unity to the company’s spaceport in New Mexico from its testing facility in Mojave, California. Then the company will complete a series of test flights at the new location, while also finishing the design of the spacecraft’s cabin for customers.
There’s so much interest and the company may increase its prices substantially for the first commercial flights.
However, after some time, after a few thousand flights it would become passe!
ISS support - funded by EU, Russia
The ISS and Long term presence of humans in space stations is vital to keep a foot print in space.
Role of Space Stations as Footholds!
SpaceX and Boeing, despite both suffering setbacks in 2019, are expected to launch NASA astronauts to the International Space Station in 2020.
Moon Flight next privatized Apollo
At the 2018 Morgan Stanley Space conference, participants were surveyed on the "When a human will next step on the Moon" - The answers ranged from 2022 to 2030, with an average answer of 2025. 10 out of the 12 presenters believe China will be the next to put a human on the moon before the US.
Flight and Low Gravity Well station there
- A massive Tech/Financial Drain due to payload
- In the long term this will be the key winner
- Only four biggies are into this - SpaceX, Virgin Galatic, Blue Origin and Boeing.
Mars, etc. Space missions
SpaceX Heavy rocket is best positioned for this.