Turkey Investing and Economy

By pjain      Published July 15, 2021, 5:09 p.m. in blog Geo-Politics   

Turkey Investing BPR, tips, Key Factors

Economy Turkey Tracking

Lira crashing Currency, Bonds Ratings

Turkey has a fast-growing economy straddles Europe and Asia

For last few years problems to a dramatic decline in the value of the Turkish lira in August that further destabilized Turkey's economy.

However market participants have gotten spooked by the policies of President Erdogan both economically and geopolitically.

Geopolitics - Syrian Refugees, US-Turkish relations stressed

Turkey has been one of the first places refugees fleeing Syria have gone, and many other European countries have resisted allowing refugees to continue westward.

Worsening U.S. and Turkey relations have raised new concerns among economists

TUR Turkish ETF

  • 2018 down 50%

About TUR - half of the Turkey ETF consists of financial and industrial stocks, and both of those sectors could face further pressure if the crisis doesn't end soon. - Financial stocks are vulnerable to continued volatility in the lira - industrials could suffer if trade tensions escalate into even harsher tariffs than those currently in place.

2010+ --- Economic reforms

Over the past decade, economic reforms and some political reforms, have contributed to a growing economy, although economic growth slowed in recent years.

Turkey By Sector ==> Consumer Staples, Food

INFRA and Real Estate Mega Projects built on 300b+ Foreign Loans

Turkish Airlines - Super Low Price

Istanbul Airport

Istanbul’s new airport, is expected to serve 200 million travelers a year when all six of its runways are in operation, more than any other airport in the world today. The achievement has been marred by the dozens of workers believed to have died in the rush to complete it on time.

Bridge

A $3 B third bridge over the Bosphorus with pylons higher than the Eiffel Tower, officially opened in 2016—more than a year behind schedule. Connected to a new $7.3 billion motorway, it failed to meet earnings projections, requiring Ankara to boost operators’ revenues from taxpayer money.

Canal Istanbul

It is a a 28-mile long artificial canal that would parallel the Bosporus, dubbed the Kanal Istanbul to increase capacity for shipping to and from the Black Sea, connecting it to the Marmara Sea in the south of Istanbul.

Canal Istanbul “will transform the city’s topography, environment, and urban landscape,”

It has drawn a fierce backlash from economists who say it would place an unacceptable burden on Turkey’s fragile economy, scientists who warn of “catastrophic” ecological fallout

  1. COST OVERUNS. The project is estimated to cost around $25 b far higher than $9b touted a few years ago, but opposition claims it could be easily double that.

  2. NEPOTISM, CRONY CORRUPTION.

  3. ECONOMICS. Government claims it will earn billions per year but again, others say it will be bleeding money. Turkey’s Transportation and Infrastructure Ministry will undertake DIRECT financial liability of companies involved - it will NOT be a private economic pay-its-way project.

  4. Mega Earthquake Predicted. It has received widespread backlash from professional organizations and NGOs because the canal poses a severe risk for the large-scale earthquake expected in Istanbul

  5. LIRA DOWNFALL - last straw?

  6. Environmental Damages. Little green/forest cover. Kanal would damage the city’s last forested areas in the developmental process. There's also concern that marine life in the Marmara Sea would be affected.

7. MEGA REAL ESTATE GIVEAWAYS.

  • Erdogan's son-in-law in a leaked document was revealed to have bought up major tracts of land around proposed Canal route - but Turkish courts blocked and sealed off public view.
  • As recently as 2018 a square meter of land in the farming community northwest of Istanbul around proposed Canal sold for as little as 10 Turkish lira half the price of a pack of cigarettes. By Feb 2020 speculators flocked and snapped swathes of farmland and pushing prices to up to 700 lira ($126) per square meter, and Sazlibosna, pop. around 1,500, is the epicenter of the battle.
  • Real estate investment partnership and cement shares in Borsa Istanbul rose considerably. Companies such as Emlak Konut, Halk, Vakif and Kiler real estate investment partnership led the rise, with the BIST Real Estate Investment Trust Index rising by more than four percent.

  • Violation of Russian agreement. Political analysts concerned that its potential to undermine a near-century long multinational maritime accord will exacerbate Turkish tensions with Russia.

  • Challenges from Opposition - Erdogan could overreach in Subjugating Citizens. Canal Istanbul is pitting Erdogan against Istanbul’s new mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who claims polls show most people in the city are against it. On Feb.13, 2020 Imamoglu’s office filed a formal legal objection to the canal’s development. Ekrem is the opposition figure who is the most significant challenger to the Turkish president’s 17-year rule.

Timeline

Materials

Energy, Oil, Gas

Services, Travel, Tourism

Technology, Sw, Hw, SaaS


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