US Chinese Trade, Foreign Policy and Military confrontation

By pjain      Published Jan. 24, 2021, 10:31 p.m. in blog Geo-Politics   

Part of China Series (this doc) - China Series - See Series ** - Guide to Geo-Economic-Politics - Military GeoPolitics Guide and Series

US Chinese Foreign Policy

--- China PREDICTIONs Overview

Biden likely will bluster and act tough and redo a Obama-knuckle down under China's thumb!

Globalization becomes Exit-China?

Globalists want "Back to Gravy" placation of China to rapidly restore post-Covid profits

US MNCs stand to lose in trade actions against China

Nike and Coca-Cola Lobby Against Xinjiang Forced Labor Bill. Business groups and major companies like Apple have been pressing Congress to alter legislation cracking down on imports of goods made with forced labor from persecuted Muslim minorities in China. - NYTimes Nov 2020.

What is future Speed of exit-China Manufacturing for Cheaper Labor

Biden to invest in Industrial Policy - Union supported

Biden a better leader for Global US Allies

Biden can effectively assemble US Past Allies to counter China

North America "normalizing", USMCA proper implementation

The first world leaders that Biden spoke to were Canada and Mexico.

Canada

Canada’s PM talk after Trudeau this week said he was disappointed at Biden’s move to halt construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline

Trump called the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, “dishonest and weak.”

Mexico

Biden also spoke to Mexico’s leader, days after López Obrador accused US officials of fabricating drug charges against the country’s former defence secretary

Is China Trade worth the funding of Chinese FDI/Terror/militarism by $1 T per year?

UK post-Brexit looking to get closer

--- EU Role

Trump celebrated the fragmentation of the Eu, UK's Brexit.

China buddies up with BRI and Trade deals preempting Biden restoration

Xi joining Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, President Emmanuel Macron of France and other European leaders in a conference call on Wednesday to seal the deal

NATO

Trump did not see the point of NATO in his revisionist world view, and he shifted base staff from Germany to Poland, as well asking EU nations to fully fund NATO to 2%+ of GDP.

--- ASIA

Role of TPA

Role of RCEP

South Korea sucks up to China

Not only is it NOT part of the Quad, other omissions are the Phillipines, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Russia balancing

Trump was seen as kowtowing to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

Biden however early on sought to deescalate nuclear arms race by renewing the new START inspection treaty for another 5 years.

Vietnam

  • Vietnam will be keen not to anger prior communist stablemate China

  • Ironically To win Hanoi’s trust, the US may need to tone down its human rights criticisms and take a tough line in the South China Sea

Thailand

Malaysia

Bangladesh

Mideast

Rebalancing ultra-pro-Israel tilt by Trump under uber-Zionist Adelson influence.

Trump advanced peace in the Middle East, as between Israel and some Arab states, he also stoked tensions with Iran.

Biden has suggested that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt was Mr. Trump’s “favorite dictator.” mentioning Trump's obsession with the world's tyrants from Putin, N.Korea etc.

US Africa ties - beyond "anti-China"

"FREE" China Trade is KEY ISSUE, Gets US past allies

Financialized Democrats, UK City - not so hot for China after HKO takeout

Wall Street Backers paid millions to key Biden appointees Yellen, etc.

Disclosures showed Wall Street backers paying millions to key Biden appointees often zoom calls.

This has angered even Democrat progressives who see the Clinton-Obama-Biden Democratic establishment that has not sufficiently embraced liberal priorities.

Ethics policy barring officials in his administration from participating for two years in policies that could affect their former business interests.

Biden is Pro-Lobbyists

  1. In 2009, Mr. Obama prohibited all of his appointees from participating for two years in “any particular matter” as a government official that “directly and substantially” related to a former employer or former client, including a federal regulation that might affect the former client. The ethics rules adopted by Mr. Obama in 2009 were considered the most comprehensive in modern American politics. They included for the first time a commitment to ban registered lobbyists from working in agencies they had lobbied in the prior two years, with limited exceptions.
  2. Obama's White House also moved to routinely release a list of all visitors, so the public could see what corporate executives and lobbyists were meeting with the president and members of his staff.

  3. WORKAROUNDS

  4. However, the DC swamp soon found ways to evade Obama's tighter lobbying rules. That included off-the-books meetings between lobbyists and White House aides at nearby coffee shops.

  5. 2010+ Mr. Biden bristled at the strict lobbying rules, which he contended would deprive their nascent administration of experienced talent.

  6. 2016+ Progressive Democrats and advocates for tighter ethics rules have called for years for an expansion of lobbying rules to include strategic consultants, as well as executives who work behind the scenes to help corporations develop lobbying strategies.

  7. Trump's Abused as representatives from corporate America and Wall Street held prominent posts, and conflicts of interest abounded.

  8. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/ethics

  9. https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/landmark-white-house-transparency-policy-will-make-visitor-records-public

How Lobbying Works

  • However, the DC swamp soon found ways to evade Obama's tighter lobbying rules. That included off-the-books meetings between lobbyists and White House aides at nearby coffee shops.

Washington DC's revolving door

In trillion dollar industry groups like Defense, Health Care and Pharmas, Big Tech monopolies etc. the stakes are so high, the money baggers "invest" in both parties.

Officials whose parties have lost power monetize their insider expertise and connections in the private sector, then head back into government when their party retakes the White House.

Strategic Advisors and Consultants not Lobbyists

  • Lobbyists stopped registering as lobbyists and called themselves strategic advisers allowing them to advise clients about how to exert influence on the government.
  • Now these "consulting shops" help their MNC clients take advantage of weaknesses in current laws, so there is no transparency in their clients and how they are trying to influence public policy for them.
  • Lobbyists will make millions on revolving doors.
  • "That’s exactly the kind of people who should not be in an administration". - Danielle Brian, Project on Government Oversight

Proposed 2016+ Ban in Area of Industry Contacts

“If the C.E.O. of a fossil fuel corporation should not be put in charge of U.S. diplomacy or an oil lobbyist should not be put in charge of the Interior Department under a Republican administration, there is no reason to believe that an officer or lobbyist at a major bank or financial firm should be put in charge of financial policy under a Democratic administration,” said a letter sent by 13 House Democrats last month to Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader.

Biden Connections to MAJOR lobbyists Groups and Kickbacks

  • WestExec Advisors. Cristina Killingsworth, WestExec’s vice president, is on leave from the firm while she works on Mr. Biden’s Office of Management and Budget review team. Also, another co-founders, Antony J. Blinken, a former deputy secretary of state, took a leave in August to run the Biden campaign’s foreign policy operation and later became Secty-of-State. A third, WestExec co-founder, Michèle Flournoy, a former under secretary of defense for policy, is considered a possible defense secretary. WestExec clients are "not revealed", but include a leading American pharmaceutical company, Google, and a multibillion-dollar American technology company that WestExec helped with safeguarding against trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The firm takes its name as the road between West Wing (president), and Eisenhower Exec office (VP) implying deep influence. It paired with venture capital funds that helped companies it advised expand to take on federal contracts or other new work.

  • Albright Stonebridge Group - co-founded by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, has 4 members to be included in Biden’s agency review teams overseeing the State Department and international aid programs. This Lobbyst group represents a range of international clients, including until recently the Switzerland-based mining and commodities trading giant Glencore, which has been the subject of investigations in the United States and around the world related to corruption and other issues.

Biden Groups and Kickbacks

Database of Biden's Past Revolving doors - APPOINTEES

  1. Yellen his new Treasury Secty got $7m+ in just last two years from major corporations and Wall Street banks that have a keen interest in the financial policies she will oversee. $0.99m from CitiCorp for just 9 appearances i.e $110k each speech. Ms. Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chair, started giving paid speeches in February 2018, which was within a year of the conclusion of her term at the Fed. She was also a consultant to Magellan Financial Group Ltd., an Australia-based investment-fund manager, which paid her $125,000.

  2. Antony J. Blinken, Biden's secretary of state, was paid nearly $1.2m by WestExec a consulting firm which was paid by clients including Facebook, Boeing, Blackstone and the asset management company Lazard. He disclosed stock stakes are worth a total of $1.5 million to $6 million in stakes in WestExec, among other major corporates. Mr. Blinken’s disclosure forms show that he worked with 17 WestExec clients, including Microsoft, Uber, AT&T, FedEx, LinkedIn, the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank, the pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences and McKinsey & Company, the global consulting firm. He publicly defended tech companies, while Facebook was a client of WestExec.

  3. Avril Haines,Biden's director of national intelligence, was paid $180,000 to consult for the data-mining company Palantir, which has raised liberal hackles for providing data and surveillance services to law enforcement, including the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

  4. 2017 Ms. Haines left her position as deputy national security adviser to President Barack Obama at the end of his term in 2017,
  5. 2018 Palantir. Within about six months she was working as a consultant for Palantir.
  6. Relatively speaking she got bulk of income $440k from Columbia University to run a international research project and to lecture at its law school.
  7. She also got $55k from WestExec also.
  8. 2020 mid. When Ms. Haines joined Mr. Biden’s transition team over the summer, a spokesman sought to distance her from Palantir’s data collection and surveillance, saying that the vast majority of her work for the company was related to diversity and inclusion.

  9. Transition advisers included Jessica Hertz, who helped oversee government relations efforts at Facebook

  10. Biden chose Ron Klain as Chief-of-Staff who has corporate ties eg AOL's Steve Case VC behind Revolution and pro-Tech Startups and had warned against government regulation of technology in 2015.

  11. JPMorgan is the IB behind Biden, more than GS/CitiCor.

However Biden did NOT pick Steve Ricchetti, a well-connected Washington operator who had also lobbied for insurance companies, credit agencies and others. and former pharmaceutical industry lobbyist who served as his chief of staff while he was vice president. Ricchetti became the chairman of Mr. Biden’s presidential campaign, and is reported to be in contention for a prominent administration post. Mr. Ricchetti’s brother continues to operate a lobbying firm bearing the family name, which has signed several new clients in recent months.

Leftist media like NYTimes pushing Biden into China intercourse

"Biden, according to analysts in China, could do more damage than Mr. Trump by pursuing a more coherent strategy to counter China’s global agenda." - Steven Lee Myers and Javier C. Hernández, NYTimes 9/22/2020 - Note this was BEFORE elections showing clear line of Wall Street backers of this paper

Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Bangladesh already Proxy "origin-restamped" for China

-- US Chinese Foreign Policy Timeline

Trump 2018-2020

China's hard-core CCP and hawks actually believe that Trump’s “America First” presidency has, on the whole, benefited China by reducing American global leadership and “Build-the-Country,Trump” [China not US] i.e. has done more to make China great again not the MAGA hats worn by his followers.

Trump raised average Chinese tariffs from 3% to 19%, settling on Phase I compromise that China has massively reneged on.

2019 Trump anti-China hurt rural agriculture imports by China

2020 China severely laggy Phase I implementation

Trump's anti-China policy was a way to boost support for lost jobs and Politics - Blame foreigners

Trumps 2021 Final push of Anti-Chinese

In final part of Trumps barrage of moves against China capped his confrontation with China targeting areas like trade, technology and security.

  1. 44 firms on the list have been cut from various equity indexes or seen their securities delisted as "Chinese military companies" where Chinese government has a stake of 50 per cent or more. The delisting itself unlikely to hurt companies themselves, as domestic investors will love the buy on dip.

  2. Bonds to be hurt. JPMorgan estimated that around “US$55-60 billion of bonds would be affected if/when the Treasury acts.” Their bonds are to be hurt as fixed-income markets are still grappling with the impact as many bonds are issued through subsidiaries rather than main companies.

    China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina) Debt issued has already suffered US$1b of forced selling in the wake of the executive order and could see another US$1.3 b CNOOC) US$19.5b of US dollar-denominated debt, over US$3.2b was held by funds domiciled in the United States and US$3.5 billion could be affected if the scope was broadened to all asset managers with US presence

Biden WANTS to normalize Trade

Biden DOES want to want to find areas to cooperate and stabilize Washington’s spiraling relationship with Beijing.

CCP-controlled Global Times called on Mr. Biden to “actively consider abolishing all the diplomatic decisions made by the previous administration in its recent surprise attack.”

Clinton-Obama-Biden actually OWNED more by Wall Street than China

  1. Biden as senator shortly after Clinton played an important role in China’s accession in 2001 to the WTO. This was a prelude to next 20 years of massive abuse under WTO "rules". China basically blocked imports by non-tariff "rules", its "firewall" blocked US biggest companies. China actually sued US under WTO for "illegal" trade blocking.

Biden seen as SOFT by Xi since 2013

Chinese leadership views Mr. Biden largely through its experience of the Obama administration, when relations were also strained under Mr. Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. The disputes with Obama-Biden back then centered on cyberespionage and China’s military buildup in the South China Sea.

Obama was clearly soft to both Republicans and often gave up LOTS of ground to opponents idly "hoping" for progress on less monetary/military roles eg climate change, curbing China's "proxy" nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran.

Does Xi's China think it "OWNS" Biden after Hunter Biden payoffs? Blackmail material?

Obama gave Mr. Biden, his vice president, the role of cultivating Mr. Xi, then China’s leader in waiting. This ended up in a "soft" sucking up by Biden to Xi. Biden got very little pushing to ease military tensions and warned him against expelling American journalists based in China.

Mr. Xi, standing in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, called Mr. Biden “my old friend.” After Biden's 2013 visit, and later alleged payoffs of millions of dollars to his son Hunter Biden. If anywhere near true, how would Xi and the CCP view their "owned slave" Biden?

Beijing could pressure Mr. Biden to reverse at least some of the Trump administration’s decisions as a condition of resuming talks on other issues. But reversing any decision too quickly could also send a signal to the Chinese leadership that all of the recent moves are on the table. -- NYTimes

Social Media Campaigns Clearly Anti-Trump and Pro-Biden

Clearly China prefers Biden massively over Trump.

Facebook had detected modest Chinese operations intended to both help and hurt Mr. Trump’s re-election chances against Mr. Biden, but the company did not attribute the operations to the government in Beijing. - NYTimes 9/22/2020

MILITARY Threats by China

China invades India in Galwan - taking Arunachal territory by default

China invades "ally" Nepal - taking territory by default

First Chain of Islands Protection Policy - Declassified by Trump in preemptive move

Quad of US, Japan, India and Australia to counter China in Indian Ocean

China punishes Australia - Coal ships left stranded

China speeds up Take BACK Taiwan after China digested HKO

Taiwan as an ally of US

Taiwan's TSM, ASUS vital to US Tech Big Players

Trump taunts China

Trump's approach, in defiance of Beijing’s opposition, made Taiwan once again a major point of friction in the relationship between the United States and China.

Trump has just recently in end 2020 and to Jan 20,2021 jettisoned longstanding guidelines limiting exchanges with Taiwanese officials. The move was welcomed by many Taiwanese officials, but Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president, who has called for talks with Beijing and is wary of escalating tensions, has not spoken publicly on the issue.

  1. Trump held a video conference between a senior United States envoy and the president of Taiwan, the self-ruled island claimed by Beijing.

  2. Trump administration supported it with official visits, pledges of economic cooperation

  3. For example the visit by Kelly Craft, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, was to bolster Taiwan’s efforts to be included in international agencies, which China opposes. Mr. Pompeo announced Ms. Craft’s visit at the end of a statement lambasting China for the arrest of dozens of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong, effectively wedging Taiwan’s interests into an ongoing dispute between Washington and Beijing. The trip was later canceled and replaced by a phone call with President Tsai. - NYTimes

  4. Especially irksome to CCP is the promised billions of dollars in weapons sales especially many ULTRA CHEAP F16 etc fighter jets that Taiwan can effectively use against China's navy.

Biden and Taiwan - Go back EZ to old "don't overtly help" guidelines

This be especially tricky for Biden but he will do it slowly not give up the political gains at once.

The Chinese government is likely to pressure the Biden administration to reinstate a set of guidelines meant to restrict interactions between American officials and their Taiwanese counterparts. The guidelines had been in place since the United States broke off ties with Taiwan in 1979 and shifted diplomatic recognition to Beijing.

It makes sense for Biden to "review" Trump's waiving of guidelines and restrictions and reinstate some of them, if necessary. But doing so would risk upsetting Taiwan and drawing criticism at home on an issue that enjoys bipartisan support. So Biden has to GET SOMETHING in return.

Reality of Greater China - the next Imperialist and Colonial Power

Chinese Sanctions - Exercising its Political, Travel, Money and Economic Powers

China is taking it "PERSONAL" as the Chinese foreign ministry announced that it was imposing sanctions on Mr. Pompeo and 27 other Americans — mostly Trump administration officials — for having “seriously violated China’s sovereignty.” Those sanctioned include many of the Trump administration’s top China hawks, like Peter Navarro and Matthew Pottinger. It prohibited the 28 Americans and their family members from entering the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau, the foreign ministry also said it was restricting the named individuals, and companies and institutions associated with them, from doing business with China.

This could be seen as an explicit "BE A FRIEND OR FOE" to Western powers.

Human Rights abuses

Mr. Trump, who rarely speaks out on rights issues, expressed support for Beijing’s crackdown on Muslims in Xinjiang in a private meeting with Mr. Xi, according to John Bolton, NSA advisor. Trump has yet to meet the Dalai Lama and has till Jan 2021 has said very little against China. Then all of a sudden in last days Trump claimed Beijing was committing genocide against Uighurs and other Muslims in a far western region.

He imposed sanctions, blacklisted Chinese companies and banned all imports of cotton and tomatoes from the region, internal divisions over the issue were often laid bare.

Tahir Imin, a Uighur activist based in Washington, said after the United States declared that China’s repression of his ethnic group amounted to genocide.

This is a deliberate attempt to force Biden to push China annoyance to top of agenda. The democratic spiel is very much pro-human rights and Biden administration planned to maintain a combative stance on China over human rights and other issues eg he called China’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang “genocide” during the election campaign.

Antony J. Blinken, Biden's pick for secretary of state around 1/22/21 that he agreed with Mike Pompeo’s move in his final days in that role to declare that China’s repression of the Uighurs constituted genocide.

Chinese are sensitive on this issue as the Chinese state media like CCP controlled Global TImes had dismissed Mr. Pompeo as “crazy” and the “worst secretary of state in history. China’s foreign ministry rejected the genocide designation as “malicious farce.”


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