US Elections : Promotion, Messaging, Advertising

By pjain      Published Dec. 7, 2020, 6:24 p.m. in blog Invest   

Key factors in Elections -- XFR --

Incumbent wins if Economy Good and No Wars

  • Trump’s fate is tied more directly to the health of the nation. “When you get stability both in the economy and just overall stability, you’re going to start to see the president’s numbers get closer to where they were a couple months ago, which was still very tight. .. I don’t think anything is going to be a slam dunk.” - Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R)

Online Ads

Paid advertising remains one of the most powerful tools available to political campaigns.

The Trump campaign spent 25m on paid ads online, and another $6.3m on national cable advertising just in Q2'2020 when funds were locked-down.

Social Media - Highly Targeted

Campaigns - Messaging and Positioning

=== Older PR, Debates

Ineffectual Older Media Promotions

=== Cases : Biden 2020 Campaign

CRAZY LEFTIST Democrats

Mega Debate Panels - Too many candidates - Fragmentation Confused

DNC crippled by 20 years of Clinton-Obama control

KISS: Fight misinformation and Fake News

Disinformation played a big part in 2016 and, possibly, had an even bigger presence in 2020. This time, however, the Democrats were better prepared.

Biden campaign focused on educating voters, expand its organic reach and deal with misinformation.

This was a healthy message, pulling in Centrists as well as even the otherwise ultra-leftist radicals.

Basically it shifted Trump leaning patriots (right-wingers).

  • @jess4twins
  • @BPIMedia, founded by the digital marketers of Obama's 2008 campaign & currently contributing to #Biden’s campaign
  • @BenLaBolt, key Biden'20 digital campaign strategist, former @BarackObama Press Secretary and @BPIMedia partner

Win: Centrist - Balanced vs CRAZY Democrat leftists

Biden campaign knew Trump's deluge of lies might seem like a crazy egotist's rantings or disjointed loose threads but, in the minds of voters, they actually added up to a single potent key weak point and storyline: Would Biden be able to stand up to the leftist wing of the Democratic party?

  • "Instead of chasing down and knocking down every ANTIFA rumor, we knew that the best defense was convincing people that the Joe Biden they did like, whose values they shared, would be the author of his own presidency, ..“And when we reminded them of those values … and validated that through trusted endorsers, we could win the argument and defeat the attack.” - Danny Franklin, BPI partner

KISS - Get out and Vote! Repeated in Debates!

Instead of Trump's state-wise target ads, Biden campaign ran a more efficient targeting program with less waste while raising more money.

“I can have one of those Pimp My Ride cars with a toaster oven in the back or a koi pond in the trunk, but if a normal Camry will get me to work faster, I’m going to do that,” - Biden campaign’s digital director, Rob Flaherty

WIN: Massive Allocation to Email LIST investment for donor fund raising

Money was tight in Q2 Covid fund-raising freeze when Biden campaign made one of the riskiest bets: devoting 40% of the campaign’s entire budget to list building and acquisition – in order to catch up to Trump’s advantage. While super-gutsy "it absolutely paid off. As a percentage of our raise, the names it brought in were a huge amount of our digital revenue, and the value of us catching up on that list could not be overstated.” - Biden’s campaign managers, Jen O’Malley Dillon and Flahery, digital director

WIN: All in Spend Super Spike in Q3'2020

n March and April, when the pandemic forced a nationwide lockdown and curtailed traditional fundraising activities. No longer safe to shake hands and kiss the heads of babies, the Biden campaign had to rethink fundraising as DNC support was also early then.

As the general election neared, by Q3'2020 Joe Biden was flush with cash while Donald Trump had wasted what was once a sizable financial advantage.

WIN: Get Obama to campaign

Win: Test Conversion Strategies on Facebook

One of its biggest tools was Facebook to

  1. A/B testing on who converts best. “We did a lot of experimentation around training Facebook on attitudinal shifts, pre-testing a lot of creative to get a sense of how and what audiences moved after exposure to creative,” - Biden campaign’s digital director, Rob Flaherty

  2. Used the Facebook’s algorithm to find look-alikes of people who were most persuaded by the Biden campaign’s content.

  3. Go through trusted (left-leaning) Facebook groups and pages to counter Trump FB cult pages by giving them the resources (media kit?) to message and share sponsored content. Sixty percent of Biden’s Facebook views came through that partner network

  4. “Overnight, we had more organic reach on Facebook through that network than the president had through his pages .. We spun that up in a manner of weeks.” - Flaherty

  5. How Biden’s Rebels Blew Up Trump’s Death Star | AdExchanger

Win: Pro TikTok vs Trump which tried to Kill it!

Biden campaign didn’t ignore the growing video portal either.

  1. As with Facebook, Biden’s team developed relationships, through a partner, with prominent TikTok communities to push out content. “We worked with influencers, big and small, in targeted states to share messages about voting and the vice president,” - Flaherty

  2. RESULT: TikTok was the Biden campaign’s second most important video platform – even though it didn’t have an official presence.

So by end Q2 Trump tried to rapidly kill TikTok as a means for China control of algorithms to influence by memes and making fun of Trump.

Fail: Biden smeared by other Democrats

Biden Fund Raising started Later

Biden has focused on online donations.

Biden's campaign has benefited from the broad surge of donations to progressive groups during the recent period of civil unrest.

Some facts on fund raising - $80.8 m in May working with DNC

Biden Spent little till Q3'2020 - when declared Demo Candidate

Biden has an early advantage despite not yet spending a dollar on television advertising for the general election.

Biden’s campaign spent little only ramping up in Q2'2020 - $5m on online advertising in the first week of June alone

Winner: Reunite America

“Trump’s campaign is on a death spiral. He’s on a death spiral because at every turn he’s made the wrong choices. He’s dividing America, not uniting America.” - DNC Chairman Tom Perez

2020 Trump Campaign - Scheming nearly Worked!

Trump Earliest Ever Reelection Fund Raiser Incumbent

  • Covid also slowed down incumbent fund raising - however Trump had been raising reelection funds even from Dec 2016

End the Lockdowns in Summer - Start RED Re-election Campaign, Voters distracted

  • In 2020 voters were heavily distracted by tune into the general election matchup.

Covid-19 Hurt Election Year Trump Fund Raising

  • Only in July did Trump campaign ads spending emerge from a coronavirus-induced freeze that dominated public attention, and they’ve spent only a fraction of their record-breaking war chest.

Trump controls RNC - United Republicans

Trump's MAGA cult

The Democrats had nothing like Trump’s huge organic communications advantage i.e. Trump’s cultish following, nor could he recreate the president’s millions of frenzied followers across Facebook and Twitter.

Trump's Billion Dollar Campaign - Paid Ads?

Trump has almost unlimited resources to reach persuadable voters on their televisions, phones and computers. He reported more than $250 million in the bank at the end of April combined with the Republican National Committee and joint entities.

However the total indirect funding used may be many times including "well-wishers" and PACs, the total going for incumbent, esp. with the ultra-left high tax, anti-oil and wealth taxes.

Democrats acknowledge that Trump has a well-funded political operation that should not be taken lightly

$200m+ raised in Stop the Steal to go to possible 2024 Trump Election Bid

Winner: Smear Joe Biden - Corruption index

“A lot of Americans know of Joe Biden but not very many know about Joe Biden .. Right now, in most voters’ minds he is essentially the generic Democrat. We’re going to change that." - Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh

FAILed No-Masks Strategy : Reds vote in Person and Unafraid - Democrat Wimps won't show up

Suppress Off-Poll Votes - Trump Relied on blocking Mail-in Ballots too much

Failed to swing Battleground states - Too defensive spending

Trump’s team had early raised the possibility of winning Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, New Mexico and even Oregon, So Trump’s campaign weis only spending money in states he won four years ago.

The advertising spend tell the real story of a campaign decidedly on the defensive. Possibly, when Mar-Jun Covid-19 hit, they did not want to blow their wad too early, as fund-raising was unclear till Q3'2020.

Battleground states were identified in March to be Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But Trump ended up losing by a hair all but Florida and NC.

Florida tops the list - eventually Republicans won by a tight margin.

In hindsight, Georgia should have been targeted.

Instead of spend, Trump did much more face-to-face campaigning to the Red faithful.

FAILed Message : Trump responsible for Covid-19 200,000+ Deaths

FAIL : Trump’s inconsistent messaging

  • “It’s frustrating - headed back in the right direction, but then every once in a while the message gets off track from the good things that he and his team are doing” former Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Trump’s inconsistent messaging - June 2020

Trump’s digital ad strategy was fragmented by developing multiple variations of ads for specific segments. Ultimately it proved too confusing, as Trump himself was seen as inconsistent.

ADS FAIL Death Star - 6 state, 7-week targeted $25m paid ads

“For nearly three years we have been building a juggernaut campaign (Death Star). It is firing on all cylinders. Data, Digital, TV, Political, Surrogates, Coalitions, etc, .. In a few days we start pressing FIRE for the first time.” - Brad Parscale, digital marketing expert for Trump

“Death Star” is a reference to the fictional Star Wars space station capable of destroying planets with a big laser, a sprawling spherical construction capable of housing more than a million military personnel, and another 400,000 droids – apparently preparing to fire its laser at an unknown target.

  • $25m paid ads campaign Trump’s campaign manager coined the Death Star term for a 6 states targeted, 7-weeks April to end May. Battleground states were identified in March to be Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But Trump ended up losing by a hair all but Florida and NC. In retrospect,

  • $10m ads mid June blitz designed to highlight better-than-expected recent job numbers.

  • However, campaign spending was slowed as Democrat were screwing themselves
  • Covid also slowed down incumbent fund raising - however Trump had been raising reelection funds even from Dec 2016
  • Only in July did Trump campaign ads spending emerge from a coronavirus-induced freeze that dominated public attention, and they’ve spent only a fraction of their record-breaking war chest.

Other Elections

2000 Bush Jr - Won by hundreds of votes and Supreme Court

Obama 2008

WINNER - Get the vote Out phone trees

John F Kennedy sexier on TV than Nixon

Reagan - Soundbites work!


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