USA Covid-19 Analysis

By pjain      Published March 27, 2020, 10:24 p.m. in blog Health   

Part of Germ Theory Series

Globally more than 11.4 million people have been infected and over half-a-million have died, according to Hopkins data as of mid July 2020.

US Covid Analysis and Lessons

US policy is not science based but lobbyists based

Blame others - instead on focus on - TRUMP

Denial - actions only AFTER spread

Policies, Actionables for US as a Fail Case Study

Flatten the Curve - Lockdown

Breaking the chains of transmission in places like Florida, Texas and Arizona, where outbreaks have surged, is crucial to prevent hospitals from being inundated with patients. - Amesh Adalja, John Hopkins

Testing - delayed, millions - did not slow down - no isolation/

Antibodies False Hopes - unreliable - don't stay

PPE, Ventilators, ICU saturation - managed for lockdowns

Plasma Serum - seemed to help - but little "news"

Facemask - Violent opposition in Red states

“It simply means avoiding sharing items, physically distancing when you’re out in public, wearing a mask — these are fairly straightforward, fairly truthfully simple things to follow that are actually going to prevent more surges and more economic turmoil, to be perfectly frank,” - Barocas, infection expert

Protests/BLM/Police Brutality - Spread Covid-19 a lot

Contact Tracing - US unable to implement

Quarantines - US unable to implement due to mixing

Herd Immunity - not happening - Immunity fragile/short-lived

Herd Immunity is when a population is allowed some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population.

Early on, Sweden picked this strategy, by NOT mandating lockdowns or even encouraging facemasks - to rapidly propagating the virus amongst the population. - Death rate in Sweden has been MANY TIMES higher than its neighbors that did lockdowns - HUGE deaths of elderly and in nursing homes happened, as lack of isolation - herd immunity basically killed hundreds in crowded, low immune elderly.

It is not a “safe bet” to rely on immunity to Covid-19 as a strategy for coping with the pandemic, one expert has warned, adding that herd immunity strategies were “probably never going to work. .. immunity to this thing looks rather fragile — it looks like some people might have antibodies for a few months and then it might wane, so it’s not looking like a safe bet .. It’s a very deceitful virus and immunity to it is very confusing and rather short-lived” - July 6, 2020, Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London

Vaccines - False Hopes - too far out

  • Moderna rose massively and fell back to ground

Multiple vaccines for the disease are being tested, with many of them undergoing clinical trials, meaning they are being tested on human volunteers.

Will take time

It takes time and a lot of steps to develop a vaccine and that “we are not necessarily very close to ‘a magic bullet’ - Barocas, infection expert, Boston U We will be contending with this virus for a long time without a vaccine and I don’t want people to get a false sense of security that a vaccine is just around the corner even though we are making great strides towards one - Amesh Adalja, John Hopkins

Rationing - Effective Vaccines may be VERY short

Even if a vaccine is quickly developed, there will likely not be enough of it to “make a dent” on the virus by the end of the year or by early 2021, - Amesh Adalja, John Hopkins

US Timeline and Policy causes

What happened Timeline

Date Infections Deaths Notes
July10 2.8 m 130,000 27 red states Reopened, several locked down, Texas facemask

July 2020 status - State Cases Rapid rise on Reopening

  • The U.S. reported a record increase in cases, with RAPID spread and spikes seen in states that are well underway in their reopening process.

    The surge in places like Florida and Texas should serve as a warning to other states, such as New Jersey or Massachusetts, where the infection spread appears to have slowed for now. - Barocas, infection expert, Boston U Breaking the chains of transmission in places like Florida, Texas and Arizona, where outbreaks have surged, is crucial to prevent hospitals from being inundated with patients. - Amesh Adalja, John Hopkins

The U.S. has the highest number of reported cases and death toll in the world — more than 2.8 million people have been infected and close to 130,000 people have died from Covid-19.

US Economic Fallout and CARES cures

CARES act $2.2 Trillion Stimulus - Overview

What is in the CARES act?


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